Private sector plummets at record pace in quarter to May - CBI Growth Indicator

1 Jun 2020 04:27 PM

The monthly composite measure, based on surveys with a total of 1033 respondents, showed a survey record decline across services (-68% from -31%, survey began in 1998), distribution (-54% from -13%, question first asked in 2003) and manufacturing (-54% from -21%, data begins in 1995).

Expectations for the quarter ahead are for a similarly steep decline, confirming that no sector has escaped the significant fallout from the COVID-19 crisis.

COVID-19 specific questions added to the survey reveal that more than half (53%) of firms have temporarily laid off staff (up from 48% in April), with around one in six doing so permanently (17% up from 13% in April).

Other COVID-19 specific data includes (previous month in brackets):

Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, recently said:

“The continued impact of COVID-19 on economic activity is plain for all to see. While the unprecedented support from monetary and fiscal policy is very welcome, the grim reality of any crisis is that not every firm and job can be saved.

“With lockdown restrictions easing, ensuring people can return to work safely and gradually remains vitally important, with progress resting on the successful interaction between the new test and trace service alongside increasing COVID-secure transport capacity.

“As we move through this crisis, the need for government, business and civil society to work together to help our economy recover quickly and sustainably grows ever stronger.”