Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission: Describing the Challenge

28 Jul 2025 10:58 AM

This short paper outlines the work of the Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission. It highlights key issues facing Scotland’s justice system and presents high-level statistical trends on the country’s prison population and sentencing practices.

Overview

The Challenge

Scotland’s penal system is at a critical inflection point. High incarceration rates, systemic strain, and suboptimal outcomes demand a transformative shift to more humane, cost-effective, and evidence-led sentencing policies. The Commission is looking at these trends and challenges in the Scottish Justice system, while listening to experiences and expertise. We are focusing on community sentencing, bail and remand, and release from custody; and will make actionable recommendations for change to the Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Home Affairs by end of 2025.

High Prison Population and Changing Demographics

• The prison population was 8,375 in February 2025, and could be as high as 8,950 in September 2025.
• 22% increase in average daily prison population over 20 years despite a 40% drop in recorded crime since 2006-07.
• 68% of sentenced prisoners are in prison for violent or sexual offences.
• Over-representation of men (96%), and those with mental health issues, addictions, poverty, and care-experienced backgrounds.
• Scotland’s prison population is getting older.
• The high prison population has serious impacts on those who live and work there, on families, and communities they return to. The higher the numbers, the more difficult the conditions in prison and higher the potential for worse outcomes for those leaving prison. Overcrowding undermines rehabilitation and increases risk to our communities.

Remand

• In 2023-24, 23% of prisoners were on remand awaiting trial or sentencing; a considerably higher level than pre-COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the time spent on remand has also increased.

Sentencing

• Over time, prison sentences being imposed by the courts appear to be getting longer. The average length of custodial sentences, excluding life sentences and Orders for Lifelong Restrictions, increased by 31% between 2013-14 and 2022-23.
• Short prison sentences are still common; 73% of custodial sentences received by people in 2022-23 were for one year or less.

Impact

• Short prison sentences of a year or less show higher reconviction rates (50%) compared to Community Payback Orders (28%).
• Prison costs: estimated £47,140 per year per prisoner vs £5,000 for a community sentence.
• Overcrowding and under-resourced services have broad consequences:
  • Strain on justice staff
  • Delays and inefficiencies in courts and rehabilitation
  • High public cost with reduced public safety return
  • Negative effects on individuals, families, and communities, particularly marginalised groups.

International Comparisons

• Scotland has one of the highest imprisonment rates in Western Europe (146 per 100,000 in 2025).
• Other European nations have made sentencing reforms and reduced prison populations, without compromising public safety and trust. Scotland can too.
• Countries like Finland, Netherlands, and Ireland have shown success in reducing prison populations by:
  • Diversion from prosecution
  • Early release schemes
  • Limiting use and length of custodial sentences
  • Enhanced community and probation services
  • Better support for health, welfare, and victim needs.

Public Opinion

• 92% of the Scottish public agree prisons should focus on rehabilitation, not just punishment.
• However, many in the public think sentences are too lenient and are sceptical about the effectiveness of community sentences for reducing reoffending.
• Victims want better communication, support, and safety assurances.

Click here for the full press release