South Sudan’s shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be saved?

10 Apr 2025 12:25 PM

EXPERT COMMENT

Recent events have undermined the 2018 peace agreement, raising questions over whether the deal can be resuscitated or if a new way forward is needed.

South Sudan’s civil war ended in 2018 through a peace agreement between President Salva Kiir’s South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Government (SPLM-IG) and Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO). This agreement is now being strained to breaking point by clashes between government and opposition forces, the arrest of prominent political figures – including Machar himself – and the spillover of conflict from Sudan. 

The head of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan has warned that the country is teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale civil war, which would have a devastating impact on the entire region.

As the two SPLM factions are closely aligned with South Sudan’s two largest ethnic groups – Kiir with the Dinka and Machar with the Nuer – ethnic violence could escalate. South Sudan also risks being drawn into wider geopolitical tensions linked to external support for Sudan’s warring factions, notably around the role of the UAE, in addition to Ugandan military deployment in South Sudan.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.