The Gulf’s Zeitenwende Moment

17 Mar 2026 11:17 AM

The Gulf States will be re-evaluating their future following the US’ betrayal of its security guarantees.

The new Gulf War launched by Israel and the United States against Iran represents the most serious strategic shift in the Gulf since Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990. It is a before and after moment that will likely be as significant a turning point for the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine did for Europe in 2022.

Although the war has (to date) resulted in only limited casualties and material damage in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, its political and economic effects on the region are significant, and it would be a mistake to expect that things will simply return to normal once the hostilities are over. Even if the war were to last only a few more days or weeks, its impacts will fundamentally reshape the national strategic considerations of the GCC countries, including the way they will interact with allies, partners and adversaries around the world, and how they will engage with the international system.

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