The Hormuz inflation shock is only just beginning

14 May 2026 12:07 PM

EXPERT COMMENT

A major inflation shock is likely thanks to high global energy prices.

As statistics authorities across the globe start to publish inflation data for the month of April, the scale of the Hormuz inflation shock is slowly becoming visible. The US announced its Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen by 0.6 per cent in the last month, and 3.8 per cent over the last 12 months, its highest rise since May 2023. 

Elsewhere, annual inflation in the Philippines reached 7.2 per cent last month, from 4.1 percent in March. In Turkey, inflation accelerated to 32.4 per cent in April, from 30.9 percent a month earlier. 

There will be much more of this to come, and the reason is straightforward: the price of energy is a central variable in shaping overall inflation. And since the US-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices have soared and show no signs of returning to pre-war levels.

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