Tragedy of the West: Sacrificing Ukraine and the Rules-Based Order

4 Dec 2025 12:18 PM

The result of Russia's war of aggression is a product of the ambivalence of the West, which by turns supported Ukraine's defence in the conflict and refused to escalate its response to a level consistent with the threat Russia poses. The rules-based order is at stake, and Ukraine stands alone in its defence.

In the autumn of 2024, in the run-up to the US presidential elections, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented then presidential candidate Donald Trump with his Victory Plan for Ukraine. Now, just a year later, President Trump has issued an ultimatum to Zelensky, demanding Kyiv accept a 28-point framework for Ukraine’s surrender to Russia.

Russia has been unable to force Ukraine to surrender after nearly twelve years of brutal war and genocide, but in less than a year in office, Trump is close to coercing Ukraine into accepting defeat through a pseudo ‘peace’ deal. This dramatic turn of events illustrates the radical transformation of the global security order since Trump’s return to power.

By backing the Kremlin’s demands to Ukraine – and Europe – with American pressure, the US administration is enabling Moscow to weaponise ‘peace’ against Ukraine. At its core, Trump’s proposal legitimises Russia’s unprovoked, illegal aggression. By rewarding the aggressor and punishing the victim – limiting its sovereignty, sacrificing its people to occupation and denying true security, justice and compensation – the US administration is pushing the world to the brink of collapse of the liberal, rules-based order.

Today, the fate of the liberal, rules-based order is forged on the battlefields in Ukraine as much as it is determined by the stance of Western nations. While Ukrainians have held the front line of the rules-based order through tenacious fighting and immense suffering, Western nations may abandon it without a fight. Any settlement to Russia's war premised on a blatant disregard for international law will become a wrecking ball, destroying the remaining façade of the post-Second World War system.

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