Trump Should Carefully Consider Bringing Down the Iranian Regime

15 Jan 2026 11:51 AM

Circumstances in Iran do not map easily onto the conditions in Venezuela that abetted Maduro’s kidnapping.

The US and Iran were partners until the latter’s 1979 revolution. Since then, their relations have been tense, ranging from agreement – official or not – to threats and hostile actions. The US has worried of Iran’s ongoing effort to produce nuclear weapons and destabilise the Middle East. There were negotiations, but still, in June 2025, the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites. Since then, the Trump administration has warned Iran but is also willing to negotiate with Tehran.

As with the outbursts of the past, Iran’s severe economic troubles combined with deep political resentment among its people regarding the violation of basic human rights have brought the current unrest. It is a major concern for the Iranian regime. Some claim ‘the era of regime change in Iran has arrived.’ If the Trump administration sees the ongoing unrest in Iran as an opportunity to seek regime change in Iran, it would be a bold, complicated and risky strategy. There are several factors to be considered by the Trump administration, such as the cost, the balance of power inside Iran, and if Israel and Arab states should be involved (and if so, how much?). The Trump administration can carry out a limited operation but conducting a full-scale campaign aimed at bringing down the Iranian regime would be a very different challenge.

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