Ukraine: a wake-up call for the UK and NATO
26 Sep 2024 02:20 PM
The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee has today published its report, ‘Ukraine: a wake-up call’.
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The war in Ukraine has provided a sobering reminder of the dangers posed by complacency and outdated assumptions in defence policy, highlighting the urgent need for the UK to integrate the lessons learned from the conflict.
The UK and Europe need to re-establish a credible deterrence posture towards Putin’s Russia. The UK and NATO must thoroughly evaluate why their deterrence policy in the run-up to Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion failed, and work to better understand Putin's strategy and intentions—including what influence others (like China) may have on his decision-making.
The war in Ukraine has also exposed the limitations in our own military strength—our Armed Forces lack the mass, resilience and internal coherence necessary to maintain a deterrent effect and sustain prolonged conflict. The UK Government must commit to spending more on defence and spending better.
The Strategic Defence Review provides a timely opportunity to incorporate these lessons. The report finds that we need a candid narrative about the UK’s defence ambitions and resources. The new Government must ensure that its response to the Strategic Defence Review clearly outlines its priorities for UK Defence.
Chair's comments
Commenting on the report, Lord de Mauley, who chairs the Committee yesterday said:
“In February 2024, two years after Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the Committee launched an inquiry to draw interim lessons from the conflict and assess its implications for the UK. We identified two key lessons. First, our deterrence strategy towards Russia clearly failed. If we are to restore the credibility of NATO’s nuclear and conventional deterrence posture towards Putin, we must develop a clearer understanding of the reasons for this failure.
“Secondly, the invasion exposed significant weaknesses in both the UK’s and NATO’s military strength, and the UK's ability to sustain large-scale warfare. Successive governments have attempted to maintain the notion of the UK as a global power, but the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call, laying bare the gap between that ambition and reality.
“We welcome the Government’s launch of the Strategic Defence Review, which presents an opportunity to set clear priorities and develop a holistic model for strengthening UK Defence that mobilises all elements of national power, leveraging technology, industry, Reserves, allies, and wider society. Given the perilous threat environment, the Government must not miss this chance and must commit to spending more on defence and spending better.”
Key recommendations
Key conclusions and recommendations of the report include:
- Army size and readiness: While size is not the only measure of capability, the Committee is concerned that the British Army cannot, as currently constituted, make the expected troop contribution to NATO or sustain prolonged conflict. The Committee calls on the Government to address recruitment and retention challenges, and reinvigorate the Reserves to help build up numbers.
- Homeland defence: Russia has targeted Ukraine's critical national infrastructure through hybrid and conventional attacks, and the UK is not exempt from these threats. A whole-of-Government effort is urgently needed to build resilience and to protect our critical national infrastructure (CNI).
- Defence industry preparedness: The UK’s defence industry is unprepared for sustained conflict due to years of underinvestment. There is a lack of trust between government and the defence industry, which needs to be addressed through clearer, long-term Government commitments to allow industry to take risks and increase output.
- Innovation: Non-traditional defence suppliers, such as start-ups, SMEs and tech companies, are key to innovation and accelerating the pace of delivery, but they face barriers in accessing the defence market. The Government needs to facilitate a ‘broad church’ of industry engagement, beyond the traditional defence sector.
- Public engagement: National defence is not just the military’s responsibility. The Government should foster public engagement and resilience, learning from models like the Scandinavian "total defence" approach.
- Nurturing partnerships: The UK must bolster diplomatic efforts, particularly in the Global South, to counter Russian (and Chinese) influence. It must do so by seeking a consistent role where it has credibility and expertise, such as international development.
- Importance of air superiority: The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that air defences are essential to prevent attritional ground conflict. Investment in integrated air and missile defence and collaboration with NATO allies must be a top priority.
- Cyber and electromagnetic warfare: Space, cyber, and electromagnetic warfare are closely interlinked and have featured heavily in the Ukraine war. We need to do more to attract high-tech talent, and the Government should consider establishing a cyber and electromagnetic warfare centre.
Further information