Xi and Trump won’t discuss China’s growing nuclear arsenal

14 May 2026 12:09 PM

EXPERT COMMENT

But they can make important progress at their summit, by sharing their threat perceptions about the nuclear escalation risks brought by AI.

President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping will discuss some difficult topics at their summit this week – not least of which is the issue of nuclear weapons. China is reported to be growing and modernizing its nuclear arsenal on a scale unlike any other signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At the same time, the US’s Golden Dome missile defence project, announced by President Trump in 2025, threatens to fuel a new arms race.

US negotiators want to discuss the increase in Chinese nuclear numbers. But China has already said that it will not do so. Any agreement on nuclear limits at this summit is therefore highly unlikely. Nor even is discussion of Chinese nuclear expansion plans. However, despite tensions between the two powers, there are areas where progress could be made.

One way to approach strategic topics could be for one or both countries to share their threat assessments of new military systems and technologies – and how investment in them informs their concerns about pathways to nuclear escalation. 

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.