The Government
Office for Science today begins its latest Foresight project
examining how future environmental change could affect human
migration in the long term around the world.
A growing, urbanising global population over the next 50 years
will create demand for more food, energy and water. Many modern
‘megacities’ are located in coastal areas or river deltas, which
are vulnerable to flooding and sea-level rise. Changes to the
climate could lead to reduced crop productivity in many regions,
desertification and increased levels of water scarcity. A
wealthier population will mean substantially greater demand for
food, which must be produced from the same land area, with fewer
inputs, at the same time as coping with climate impacts and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This threatens to create a
‘perfect storm’ of global events.
Adaptation measures can help, such as improved flooding defences
or the development and use of more drought resistant crops.
However, a likely impact of environmental change and population
growth is an increase in global human migration as people move to
cope with a deteriorating environment.
The Foresight project will explore:
The global patterns and impacts of migration over the next 50
years arising from environmental change.The challenges that could
result from changing migration patterns and how these might be
managed.
The project is sponsored by the Home Office and the Department of
Energy and Climate Change.
Professor John Beddington, the Government's Chief
Scientific Adviser and Head of the Government Office for Science,
who oversees Foresight projects, said:
“A growing and increasingly urban population, coming out of
poverty, a changing climate and pressures on land and water mean
environmental migration is becoming a pressing policy concern. We
need to study the evidence carefully to make the best decisions.
“I am delighted that Phil Woolas MP and Joan Ruddock MP have
agreed to be the sponsoring ministers for this report and I look
forward to working with them to tackle this important topic. I am
inviting a number of leading academics and senior stakeholders to
work closely with us throughout the project.
“Foresight has a critical contribution to make in helping to meet
the challenges of the 21st century. It helps ensure that
government decision making is informed by longer term
evidence-based thinking. By taking a multidisciplinary approach
combined with rigorous evaluation, Foresight assists policymakers
to think strategically about future uncertainties and
opportunities. "
Border and Immigration Minister Phil Woolas said:
“Failure to address future changes in the environment may result
in substantial movements of people, which will have political
consequences in diaspora communities across the world. This study
is very timely”
Joan Ruddock, Minister for Climate Change said:
“We can foresee that climate change is going to be a key driver
for global migration and we need to start planning for this now.
This project will provide valuable research into an issue which is
going to be increasingly important as people respond to the
reality of climate change.”
Foresight will work with leading experts from across the world,
to assemble and analyse the latest evidence and research on global
environmental migration. In doing so, it will develop our
understanding of the challenges posed, and assess how the impacts
can be managed.
Notes to Editors
1. Foresight is in the Government Office for Science
(GO-Science). GO-Science supports the Government’s Chief
Scientific Adviser in ensuring that the Government has access to,
and uses, the best science and engineering advice. It is located
within the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, but is
professionally independent of it.
2. The UK Government's Foresight Programme helps
Government think systematically about the future. Foresight uses
the latest scientific and other evidence to provide signposts for
policymakers in tackling future challenges.
3. The project will appoint a High Level Stakeholder Group to
steer the overall direction of the project. It will be co-chaired
by the sponsoring Departments' Ministers - Phil Woolas MP
(HO) and Joan Ruddock MP (DECC). The High Level Stakeholder Group
will include senior representatives from key interested
organisations in the public sector, the research community and
business. A Lead Expert Group will work with Foresight to ensure
the project's findings are of the highest technical and
scientific standard. Recruitment to both groups is underway and
will be completed later this year.
4. Further details about the project can be found on the
Foresight website (http://www.foresight.gov.uk/).
Contacts:
BIS Press Office
NDS.BIS@coi.gsi.gov.uk