Government migration policy will deepen Britain’s demographic disaster

2 Dec 2010 11:39 AM

New research finds demographic time bomb could explode as early as 2040

New research, published recently by nef (the new economics foundation) with the support of the Barrow Cadbury Trust, finds that Government plans to cap immigration will mean our ageing population may become acutely difficult to support by 2040.  

Statistics on the UK’s long term dependency ratio show a rise from 61% to 74% by 2056 if net immigration remains at 147,000 per annum. It will hit unforeseen heights of 82% if net annual immigration is zero.

nef predicts that the combined effects of the immigration cap, a decline in global migration and increased international competition for talent mean migration to the UK will start dropping off after 2030, falling dramatically by 2050.

According to the report this steep decline in immigration will coincide with the peak in our dependency ratio, with adverse consequences for the economy and the welfare state.

Commenting on the findings, Dr Faiza Shaheen, researcher at nef and author of the report, said:

“These findings prove that the Government is being dangerously short-sighted in its approach to immigration policy. By effectively closing our borders to economic migrants now, the Government is laying the foundations for an economically unsustainable future.

“Britain’s population is ageing rapidly. Without a young, energetic and productive work force our economy is likely to be adversely affected. We cannot count on a steady supply of migrants wanting to come and work in Britain forever.

“The fact is that students and economic migrants will be less and less likely to come to Britain in the future. We will have to compete with the new economic giants like China, Brazil and India for talent, as well as other high-income countries like Germany and Italy where the dependency ratio will be increasing even faster than in the UK. By shutting down our borders now, we are speeding up that process and risking Britain’s long term economic stability.

“The immigration cap is bad policy for now and is worse policy for the future. Instead of pursuing populist agendas, the Government should accept that this country needs migration and find ways to distribute the costs and benefits fairly for all.”

Related Publication
Why the Cap Won't Fit - Global migration realities 2010-2050

Related links
Barrow Cadbury Trust