As world leaders
gather in Copenhagen for the UN Climate Change Conference, a new
map has been launched that highlights the importance of limiting
mean global temperature rise to no more than 2 °C above those
prior to the industrial revolution.
The Met Office map called ‘The impacts of a global temperature
rise of 2 °C’ has been produced to complement a similar map,
published in October by the UK Government and the Met Office,
exploring at the impacts on a world if the mean temperature was
allowed to climb to 4 °C above the pre-industrial climate average.
The two maps together show the range of climate impacts that can
be avoided if we act now to reduce global emissions to keep global
temperatures below 2 deg C.
Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office said:
“Restricting overall global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels won’t eliminate the impacts of climate change, but it will
limit the risk of dangerous climate change.
“If emissions are allowed to continue unchecked, our research
shows that they are likely to lead to warming of 4 °C or more by
the end of the century. This increases the risk of dangerous
feedbacks — such as the release of methane from melting permafrost
— that will amplify the warming and lead to irreversible damage to
the world’s climate and ecosystems.”
The differences between the impacts of a global mean temperature
rise of 2 °C and 4 °C are stark. A rise of 4 ºC could result in a
decrease in yields of all major cereal crops across most major
regions of production. However, by limiting temperature rises to 2
ºC the production of some cereal crops could actually increase at
mid-to-high latitudes, with negative impacts limited to regions
where farming is already under threat, especially in semi-arid and
tropical regions.
Similarly, limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2 °C could
halve the average sea level rise from 80 cm to 40 cm, when
compared with a temperature rise closer to 4 degrees.
Latest studies from the EU Ensembles research programme have
shown that emissions of CO 2 will need to be reduced close to
zero by the end of this century to be confident of avoiding a rise
in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C.
Notes to Editors
New global temperaure projection animations from the Met Office
Haldey Centre are available and can be seen on the Met Office You
Tube Channel at www.youtube.co.uk/themetoffice
· The Met Office is the UK’s National Weather Service,
providing 24x7 world-renowned scientific excellence in weather,
climate and environmental forecasts and severe weather warnings
for the protection of life and property.
· The Met Office Hadley Centre is the UK’s foremost centre for
climate change research. Largely funded by Defra (the Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and DECC (the Dept for
Energy and Climate Change) it provides information and advice to
the UK Government on climate change issues.
Contacts:
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