UK climate change
sustainable development indicator: 2007 greenhouse gas emissions,
final figures
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE News Release issued by COI News Distribution
Service. 3 February 2009
DECC today
publishes final 2007 estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions - headline results
* In 2007, UK emissions of the basket of six greenhouse gases(1)
covered by the Kyoto Protocol were estimated to be 636.6 million
tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent(2). This was 1.7 per cent lower
than the 2006 figure of 647.9 million tonnes.
* Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for
about 85 per cent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2007.
In 2007, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide(3) were estimated to
be 542.6 million tonnes (Mt). This was around 1.5 per cent lower
than the 2006 figure of 551.1 (Mt). There were decreases in
emissions of 1.8 per cent (4.0 Mt) from the energy supply sector,
4.6 per cent (3.8 Mt) from the residential sector, and 2.6 per
cent (2.4 Mt) from the business sector. There were, however,
increases in emissions from some other sectors, including 1.0 per
cent (1.3 Mt) from the transport sector and 9.5 per cent (1.2 Mt)
from industrial processes. These sectors define the source of the
emissions, as opposed to where the end-use occurred.
These results are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1 below. The
complete time series since 1990 can be found in Annex A.
Table 1: Emissions of greenhouse gases
2006 2007 Change
Total greenhouse gas emissions(1) 647.9 636.6 -1.7%
Net CO2 emissions(2) 551.1 542.6 -1.5%
Emissions are in million tonnes carbon dioxide
equivalent.
CO2 emissions figures are for the UK and Crown
Dependencies; Greenhouse gas emissions figures also include some
Overseas Territories.
Figure 1: Emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990 - 2007
See Word Document.
Coverage of emissions reporting
Reporting of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol is
based on emissions in the UK, and those Crown Dependencies
(Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man), and Overseas Territories
(Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and
Montserrat) that are party to the UK ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
Reporting of CO2 emissions for the UK only incorporates Crown
Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories.
Carbon dioxide is reported as total emissions minus total
removals of CO2 from the atmosphere by carbon sinks(4). Carbon
sinks are incorporated within the Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which covers afforestation,
reforestation, deforestation and forest management. The Kyoto
Protocol uses a narrower definition of carbon sinks than that
applied for domestic UK CO2 reporting, which therefore results in
a slightly different total.
These adjustments mean that the greenhouse gas basket reported
for Kyoto differs slightly from the sum of the individual gases as shown.
A more detailed summary of the coverage and breakdown can be
found in Annex B.
Revisions to the Inventory
The UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory is reviewed every year, and the
whole historical data series is revised to incorporate
methodological improvements and new data. This takes into account
revisions to the datasets which have been used in its compilation,
most notably the UK energy statistics published in the Digest of
UK Energy Statistics (DUKES). It is therefore not appropriate to
compare the Inventory from one year with that from another - the
latest Inventory represents a single consistent data series going
back to 1990.
In preparing the 2007 Inventory, the most notable changes to the
historical series since the 2006 Inventory was published have been
linked to changes in the emissions factors used to estimate
emissions attributable to specific activities. For the carbon
dioxide series, the most significant changes have resulted from
new data being incorporated in the inventory series for 2005 and
2006 in respect of fossil fuels use by power stations,
autogenerators and refineries. Changes to the methodology used for
calculating offshore oil and gas use have also resulted in changes
to the series for "emissions from manufacture of solid fuels
and other energy industries". For the methane series, the
most significant changes have been in respect of livestock manure
management, again related to the emissions factors, and landfill
methane, for which new data has been incorporated from 1998
onwards. For the nitrous oxide series, the only significant
changes have resulted from updates to the emissions factors for
road transport.
All the revisions to the inventory have resulted in revisions to
the 2006 figures. The total of all UK greenhouse gas emissions has
been revised downwards from 652.3 to 647.9 million tonnes carbon
dioxide equivalent. The figure for UK CO2 emissions has also been
revised downwards, from 554.5 to 551.1 million tonnes. Comparing
the 2007 figures with the 2006 figures published a year ago will
therefore give a different year-on-year percentage change, but one
which is incorrect and should not be used.
Revisions from previous estimates
Provisional estimates of 2007 UK greenhouse gas and carbon
dioxide emissions were published in March 2008, based on early
estimates of energy consumption for the year.
At that time, it was provisionally estimated that total UK
greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 would be 639.4 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide equivalent, which represented a decrease of 2 per
cent from the 2006 figure. The final 2007 figure of 636.6 million
tonnes is around 1/2 per cent lower than the provisional estimate,
and actually represents a decrease from 2006 to 2007 of around
13/4 per cent.
It was also provisionally estimated that net UK carbon dioxide
emissions would be 543.7 million tonnes, representing a decrease
of 2 per cent from the 2006 figure. The final 2007 figure of
542.6 million tonnes is fairly close to the provisional estimate,
and represents a decrease from 2006 to 2007 of around 11/2 per cent.
These differences arise from a combination of the range of
uncertainty inherent in the provisional estimates (of the order of
+/-1%), and revisions to energy statistics on which these
estimates were based.
UK emissions reduction goals
The UK has a number of goals, both international and domestic,
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
These can be summarised as follows:
Kyoto Protocol target.
The Kyoto Protocol uses a base year which is comprised of 1990
for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for
fluorinated compounds. To meet its commitment under the Protocol,
the UK has agreed a legally binding target to reduce its
greenhouse gas emissions to 12.5 per cent below the base year
level over the period 2008-2012.
In July 2007, on completion of the review of the UK Inventory,
the UK's Kyoto base year figure was 779.9 million tonnes CO2
equivalent, based on the 2006 UK Inventory submission. This means
that to meet the UK's Kyoto commitment, greenhouse gas
emissions must be below 682.4 million tonnes CO2 equivalent on
average per year over the first five year commitment period of the
Protocol (2008-2012).
In accordance with this average yearly target, the Kyoto Protocol
target for the UK was then set at 3,412 million tonnes carbon
dioxide equivalent over the full five year period - this is now
the UK's Assigned Amount.
For more details of the UK's Kyoto commitment, see the UK
Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol.
Domestic CO2 goal.
The UK has a domestic goal of reducing emissions of carbon
dioxide to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010.
UK Climate Change Act.
This Act has now set legally binding targets for the UK to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050, and
carbon dioxide emissions by at least 26 per cent by 2020, both set
against a 1990 baseline. It also requires the Government to set
five year carbon budgets, in order to set out a trajectory for
emissions reductions to 2050. The first three budgets will cover
the periods 2008-12, 2013-17 and 2018-2022, and must be set by 1st
June 2009.
Emissions Trading
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) results are not
published as National Statistics, and any results which
incorporate EU ETS figures should therefore not be treated as
National Statistics.
In reporting emissions reductions against all of these targets,
the UK is able to take account of emissions trading through the
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The Scheme has
now entered Phase II, covering the five year period 2008-2012.
Final results are now available for each year of Phase I, which
covered the three year period 2005-2007.
The EU ETS operates as a cap and trade scheme, which means that
any installation within the Scheme in the EU is given an
allocation of emissions allowances each year. If the
installation's actual emissions are above this initial
allocation for the year in question, then the installation must
either purchase allowances through the Scheme, or bring forward
some allowances from the following year's allocation, so as
to cover the deficit. Conversely, installations with a surplus of
emissions compared with their cap are allowed to either sell
allowances or carry them over into the following year's
allocation, thus providing a financial incentive to reduce
emissions. As there is a finite limit of allowances in the Scheme
(i.e. the cap), any allowances purchased should come from
installations which have reduced emissions.
Overall, in each one of the three years in Phase I, the UK was a
net acquirer of allowances. This effectively means that
installations between them either purchased or brought forward
more emissions allowances than they sold or carried over. Taking
this into account within the context of the UK's reported
emissions, this will affect the results by reducing the level of
emissions by the amount of EU ETS allowances acquired in the year.
It should be noted that at the end of Phase I, the UK Government
sold a small number of unallocated allowances from the new entrant
reserve on the open market. Since it would not have been
appropriate to incorporate these sales in the 2007 results alone,
they were spread equally over each of the three years in Phase I.
This has therefore resulted in a revision to the EU ETS results
published previously for 2005 and 2006.
A report summarising the results from Phase I is due to be
published in February 2009. Further details of the Scheme can
also be found at the EU ETS section of the Defra website.
The Government will also include any units or credits generated
through the Kyoto Protocol's flexible mechanisms in its
future assessment of the UK's progress towards its emissions
reduction goals.
UK performance against emissions reduction goals
Performance measured against targets, incorporating the net EU
ETS trading position, can, where appropriate, be summarised as follows:
* UK emissions of the basket of six greenhouse gases covered by
the Kyoto Protocol were 21.7 per cent lower in 2007 than in the
base year, down from 779.9 to 611.0 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent.
* UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were 12.8 per cent lower in
2007 than in 1990, down from 592.9 to 516.9 million tonnes.
* Although not specifically covered by a separate target, since
1990, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, the other two major
greenhouse gases, have fallen by 53 per cent and 47 per cent
respectively. Emissions of the fluorinated compounds have fallen
by 23 per cent since 1990 and by 39 per cent since 1995.
These results are shown in the context of the headline results in
Table 2 and Figure 2 below. A more detailed summary of the results
can also be found in Annex C.
Table 2: Performance against emissions reduction goals
Base year 2007
emissions
Emissions Change from
base year
All greenhouse No allowance for 779.9 636.6 -18.4%
gases trading
With allowance for 779.9 611.0 -21.7%
trading
CO2 only No allowance for 592.9 542.6 -8.5%
trading
With allowance for 592.9 516.9 -12.8%
trading
Emissions are in million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
Figure 2: Performance against targets, incorporating net effect
of EU ETS emissions trading
a) Carbon dioxide, UK only
b) Greenhouse gas emissions, Kyoto total
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is the main man-made contributor to global
warming. The UK contributes about 2 per cent to global man-made
emissions, which, according to the IPCC, were estimated to be 38
billion tonnes carbon dioxide in 2004. Carbon dioxide accounted
for about 85 per cent of the UK's man-made greenhouse gas
emissions in 2007.
In 2007, 40 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions were from the
energy supply sector, 22 per cent from road transport, 16 per cent
from business and 14 per cent from residential fossil fuel use.
Since 1990, emissions from road transport have increased by 11 per
cent, while emissions from the energy supply industry have reduced
by 11 per cent and business emissions have reduced by 19 per cent.
Since 2006, emissions from road transport have risen by 1 per
cent, whilst emissions from energy supply, business and
residential fossil fuel use have fallen by 2, 3 and 5 per cent respectively.
Methane
Weighted by global warming potential, methane accounted for about
8 per cent of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions in 2007.
Methane emissions, excluding those from natural sources, were 53
per cent below 1990 levels. In 2007, the main sources of methane
were landfill sites (41 per cent of the total) and agriculture (38
per cent).
Emissions from landfill have reduced by 59 per cent and emissions
from agriculture by 17 per cent since 1990.
Nitrous oxide
Weighted by global warming potential, nitrous oxide emissions
accounted for about 5 per cent of the UK's man-made
greenhouse gas emissions in 2007.
Nitrous oxide emissions fell by 47 per cent between 1990 and
2007. The largest reductions were in emissions from adipic acid
production between 1998 and 1999 which is seen reflected in the
reduction of total industrial processes between 1998 and 1999.
This leaves agriculture as the main source, accounting for over
two thirds of emissions, mainly from agricultural soils.
Emissions from UK-based international aviation and shipping
bunkers
*** This is a UK sustainable development strategy
indicator ***
Emissions from international aviation and shipping can be
estimated from refuelling from bunkers at UK airports and ports
(whether by UK or non-UK operators).
Between 2006 and 2007, emissions from international aviation fuel
use decreased by 1.9 per cent, although between 1990 and 2007 the
level of these emissions has more than doubled. High altitude
aviation also has a greenhouse effect over and above that of
carbon dioxide alone, but this is not reflected in this indicator.
Between 2006 and 2007, CO2 emissions from domestic aviation also
decreased, by 6.6 per cent.
The Government has recently set a new target for carbon dioxide
emissions from UK aviation, which requires them to be no higher
than 2005 levels in 2050. This target incorporates emissions from
both domestic and international aviation.
Between 1990 and 1998 emissions from UK shipping bunkers
increased by around a third. Since 1998 there has been a decrease
of 23 per cent in emissions from UK shipping bunkers, although
there was a 1.5 per cent increase from 2006 to 2007. However, UK
operators purchase most of their fuel outside the UK.
Under the guidelines agreed for UNFCCC, reporting emissions from
international aviation and shipping are not included in the
UK's emissions total, but these estimates are reported as
memo items in national greenhouse gas inventories. Parties to the
UNFCCC are required to act to limit or reduce emissions from
international services working through the International Civil
Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Maritime
Organisation (IMO).
Future updates to emissions estimates
Provisional estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2008
will be published as National Statistics towards the end of March
2009. This will coincide with the publication of Energy Trends,
which will include the first estimates of 2008 UK energy consumption.
Further Information
Further information on climate change, include Excel downloads of
all the data used to compile this statistical release, is
available at:
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/index.htm
Explanatory notes
(1) The basket of greenhouse gases consists of carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and
sulphur hexafluoride, all of which are weighted by global warming
potential (GWP). The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming
influence relative to that of carbon dioxide.
(2) Emissions are presented as carbon dioxide equivalent, in line
with international reporting and carbon trading protocols.
(3) Carbon dioxide emissions include both emissions and removals
from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry.
(4) Carbon sinks are defined by the UNFCCC as "any process,
activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol
or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere".
Notes for Editors
1. Due to the ongoing development of the Department for Energy
and Climate Change (DECC) website, under interim arrangements
currently in place the full results are accessible via the Defra website.
2. This Statistical Release and the related tables on the Defra
web site are the first release of data from the National
Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for 1970-2007, produced for
DECC and the Devolved Administrations by AEA. Additional results
will be released as they become available, including a full report
published towards the end of the year. For further information on
the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, see the NAEI web site.
3. Similar results for non-greenhouse gas atmospheric pollutants,
covering the period 1970-2007, are due to be published in March 2009.
4. Provisional estimates of total greenhouse gas and carbon
dioxide emissions in 2008 will be published on Thursday 26th March
2009. A breakdown of the 2007 results by end-user sector will
also be published at this time.
5. The climate change indicator, and the additional aviation and
shipping indicator, are two of the 68 indicators supporting the
Government's Sustainable Development Strategy.
6. There are uncertainties associated with all estimates of
greenhouse gas emissions. However, although for any given year
considerable uncertainties may surround the emissions estimates
for a pollutant, it is important to note that trends over time are
likely to be much more reliable. For more information on these
uncertainties see the Defra website at
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/gagccukmeas.htm
7. Results from the EU ETS are not currently published as
National Statistics. They have therefore not been incorporated in
the headline results.
A National Statistics publication
National Statistics are produced to high professional standards
set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo
regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs.
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