WIREDGOV

Natural England has developed a new map-based modelling approach to help assess the vulnerability of priority habitats to climate change. 

The National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model (NBCCVM) indicates the relative vulnerability of priority habitats in different geographical areas and helps guide interventions which can increase their resilience. The report on the model, available on Natural England’s website, demonstrates how the model will inform the development of national and local adaptation strategies for biodiversity, and help prioritise the actions to be taken as part of these strategies.

The Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model identifies priority habitats within 200m x 200m grids and assesses them for:

• their sensitivity to climate change (high, medium or low);

• their adaptive capacity, reflecting local circumstances which increase or decrease vulnerability such as habitat fragmentation, variety in topography, current management applications and site condition;

• their conservation value in terms of the designation status of protected sites.

The sensitivity and adaptive capacity elements described above can then be added together to produce an overall national assessment of biodiversity climate change vulnerability. Combining this with the conservation value element can be an aid to the prioritisation of action.

The model is built through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) meaning that the analysis can be presented as maps at a variety of scales, giving a visual representation of the areas vulnerable to climate change. It will also be possible to run the model to test different scenarios such as the effect of different management regimes or habitat creation.

Sarah Taylor, Senior Adviser for Climate Change Adaptation at Natural England said:

“One of the great things about the Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model is its versatility, and the wide ranging support it offers to local decision making.  It’s flexible, allowing us to see how adaptation principles are combined to reflect local circumstances and priorities.”

The NBCCVM has been trialled on Nature Improvement Areas (NIAs) and feedback sought from a range of partners including the Environment Agency, Forestry Commission, National Parks, AONBs, Local Authorities and representatives from the Wildlife Trusts to help fine tune its development.  Potential uses include informing the design of ecological networks, informing local spatial planning documents, climate change or green infrastructure strategies, landscape scale habitat creation and management planning.

Kristen Guida, Director at Climate South East, and Chair of Climate UK said:

“This vulnerability modelling is a valuable contribution to our understanding of the issues for habitats and species – it provides robust evidence about vulnerability, but does so in a visual way that is easy to use and to combine with other information sets.

Our aim is to improve the UK’s ability to adapt to a changing climate, and this requires partnership working to set out the various types of impacts and possible solutions across a range of sectors. The Natural England model is a useful way to ensure that the natural environment is considered in these discussions and contributes to better local decision-making.”

Kate Collins, Director at Sheils Flynn, the consultancy that trialled the NBCCVM for the Greater Thames Marshes NIA, said:

“NE’s Climate Change Vulnerability Model has provided a valuable evidence base which has informed stakeholder discussions and provided evidence to support the development of a Climate Adaptation Strategy for the Greater Thames Marshes. 

The maps provided will underpin our bid for EU funding and will enable us to make the case for further investment, habitat creation and management, helping our NIA partnership to pursue a project which we hope will be an international case study for best practice in this field.”

The report on the NBCCVM Model:  NERR054 - National biodiversity climate change vulnerability model, can be found on Natural England’s publications catalogue.  For further information, contact Sarah Taylor:  E-mail sarah.taylor@naturalengland.org.uk or tel: 0300 060 3922. 

Notes for Editors

For further information (media only) contact: ellen.softley@naturalengland.org.uk  0300 060 0213/ 07990 804795. Out of hours Press Office number: 07970 098 005

The National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model (NBCCVM)

1.  The NBCCVM aims to provide:

•  A spatially explicit assessment of the relative vulnerability of priority habitats based on established climate change adaptation principles

• A suite of map-based-GIS outputs at a variety of scales which can be used (in conjunction with other relevant spatial data) to target action to build biodiversity resilience.

• A flexible, GIS based, decision support tool that allows the user to incorporate locally specific datasets and select how adaptation principles are combined to reflect local circumstances and priorities.

2.  The NBCCVM is a practical way to identify areas most at risk from climate change.  It is not intended to replace more detailed assessments on the basis of local knowledge and scientific evidence but can provide an objective starting point for identifying risks and priorities.

3.  The rationale underpinning approach has been largely based on the UK Biodiversity Partnership principles for biodiversity adaptation to climate change (Hopkins et al 2007), which identified some simple widely agreed concepts for climate change adaptation.

4.  National priorities and actions for climate change adaptation were set out in the National Adaptation Programme in July 2013.  The publication of this model is one of a number of commitments that Natural England has made to promoting adaptation of the natural environment.

5.  National scale GIS outputs that will help prioritise adaptation action have been developed to assist Natural England and our partners target measures to build biodiversity resilience. The priorities highlighted within Making Space for Nature (Lawton et al 2010) provide a framework for producing GIS outputs that will help our partners to address climate change vulnerability and help deliver adaptation action. GIS outputs can help prioritise action on the Lawton Review priorities of better habitat management, bigger patches of habitat and joined up networks of habitat.

6. For more information about the trial of NBCCVM on Nature Improvement Areas, see the report: Assessing and enabling climate change adaptation in Nature Improvement Areas.

About Natural England

Natural England is the government’s advisor on the natural environment. Established in 2006, our work is focused on enhancing England’s wildlife and landscapes and maximising the benefits they bring to the public.

For further information see Natural England’s website. Twitter:@NaturalEngland