WIREDGOV

New Centre for Economics and Business Research forecasts released today indicate that the economy is probably already in recession with negative GDP growth in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012.

Cebr has also revised down its forecast for growth for 2012 as a whole from 0.7% growth as predicted last October to a decline of 0.4% with a risk of a more serious decline of 1.1% if developments in the Euro zone are especially negative.  Cebr also forecasts sluggish growth in the medium term, Growth in 2013 is forecast to be minimal at 0.9% and from 2014 onwards at around 1% per annum.

Inflation is forecast to fall to 1.7% by Q4 2012 and to remain around 2% thereafter despite rising commodity prices and a weak pound.

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