|Printable version||E-mail this to a friend|
NIESR Comment on ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP
The ONS preliminary estimate of GDP indicates that the economy grew by 0.5% in 2016Q3 and 2.3% compared to the third quarter a year ago. The increase in output is entirely accounted for by the service sector with output falling in agriculture, production and construction. Other key points:
- GDP increased by 0.5% in 2016Q3, compared to a 0.7% increase in 2016Q2.
- GDP is now 8.2% above its pre-recession peak (2008Q1), but only 1.6% on a per capita basis
- Services sector output is now 12.1% above its 2008Q1 level. Manufacturing sector output is still 5.6% below, over the same period; the construction sector is 1.3% below.
- This is the last GDP estimate release before the Office for Budget Responsibility’s first post-referendum forecast on 23rd November, published alongside the Autumn Statement.
Simon Kirby, Head of Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR, said “This is the first official estimate of GDP growth for the post-referendum period. It suggests reasonable economic momentum continued into the third quarter of this year, driven by robust consumer spending. We expect the economy to slow over the coming year, but it is unlikely that we will see further macroeconomic policy stimulus in the near term.”
This compares to NIESR’s recent estimate, based on our monthly GDP series and published on 7th October, of 0.4% quarterly growth in 2016Q3, available here.
For more information on NIESR’s estimates of the short and medium term impact of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, see here and for the long term impact see here. The Institute’s November forecasts, published in the National Institute Economic Review, will be released on 2nd November 2016.
Notes for editors:
For further information and to arrange interviews, please contact the NIESR Press Office:
Paola Buonadonna on 020 7654 1923 / firstname.lastname@example.org
NIESR aims to promote, through quantitative and qualitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policies can improve them.
Latest News from
Air pollution guidance welcome - but government action needed too - IPPR01/12/2016 13:35:00
Laurie Laybourn-Langton, IPPR research fellow on energy, transport and climate, responded to today’s announcement from NICE on dealing with air pollution
Scotland braced for ‘unprecedented’ cuts over the coming years, fresh IPPR Scotland analysis reveals01/12/2016 11:35:00
Changes to Universal Credit will put £50m back into the pockets of households in Scotland, but pre-existing plans for benefits cuts in Scotland were worth £600m per year by 2020, meaning Scottish families are still on course to be £550m worse off (2016/17 prices)
JRF - Evidence shows benefit sanctions are not fit for purpose01/12/2016 10:35:00
Chris Goulden, Deputy Director of Policy and Research at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation responded to yesterday’s report on benefit sanctions by the National Audit Office
IPPR - Government must be bolder on top pay and corporate governance29/11/2016 15:35:00
Mathew Lawrence, IPPR research fellow, responded to today's government announcement on corporate governance reform