WIREDGOV

Colombia's 31 May presidential election will decide whether ‘paz total’, Petro's flagship security framework, is refined under a continuity government or dismantled outright.

On 25 April, an improvised explosive device planted by the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), a dissident bloc of the now-defunct non-state armed group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), killed at least 20 civilians in Colombia’s Cauca department. The incident marked part of a wider escalation of attacks by the group against the security forces in southwest Colombia, ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for 31 May.

Candidates on both sides of the political spectrum have used the attacks to galvanise support for their security policies and discredit the opposition. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro (2022-present) and Iván Cepeda, the candidate of Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition, have both accused the EMC of colluding with ‘the extreme right and fascism’ to sow chaos during the run-up to the election. Meanwhile, the right-wing opposition has blamed the government’s ‘total peace’ policy for failing to contain the armed violence.

According to a February poll, public order is the issue that most concerns 30% of Colombians, with 60% of respondents feeling that the country ‘va por mal camino’ (‘is going down the wrong path’). Security has therefore been a prominent topic of discussion among candidates and a source of contention, exacerbated by high-profile assassinations like that of conservative senator and presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay in June 2025. Yet candidates’ visions for what it would take to guarantee security are sharply differentiated along political lines.

Polling in April put Cepeda – who would largely continue Petro’s legacy – at a strong lead with an estimated 44.3% of votes, followed by right-wing candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, polling at 21.5% and 19.8% respectively. Both right-wing candidates have been harsh critics of Petro’s policies and would stand a real chance of winning if the vote goes to a second round.

Click here for the full press release