WIREDGOV

Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces a challenging international context, with intractable problems, but also opportunities to lead and exert UK influence on world events.

Top of the Prime Minister’s ‘to-do’ list will be generating the economic growth the UK and the Labour Government so badly needs to improve public finances, deliver its commitments on public services and ease the cost of living crisis. Burnham has called for ‘good growth in every postcode’ and will be hoping to harness UK foreign policy to help achieve this vision. But interacting unhelpfully with this agenda are a series of security and foreign policy challenges that will undoubtedly consume significant attention and resources in the coming months.

Ongoing Conflicts

The collapse of the US ceasefire with Iran and the ongoing violence and disruption to trade in the Strait of Hormuz will dominate in the coming days, demanding immediate prime ministerial attention. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, with its outline ceasefire and sixty day negotiating period, is in theory still in play, and the hope will be to return to this quickly. The UK has not thus far played a prominent role in talks, but it will be important for the UK Prime Minister to signal he is engaged. Outreach to the Gulf States, Turkey and Pakistan, providing reassurance on UK defence commitments where these exist and on UK support for the negotiating process they have led, will be important steps.

The near universal agreement amongst states of the need to reassert freedom of navigation in the Straits is one area of potential traction and influence and the UK and France have already stated their intention to work with Oman to ensure its territorial waters are safe for navigation. But the Prime Minister will need to tread carefully to avoid being sucked into what threatens to become a perma-conflict with Iran. The US adoption of Israel’s way of war – seeking to manage threat through routine ‘mowing the grass’, rather than strategic resolution – foreshadows a long period of instability requiring ongoing conflict management.

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