WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

Whoever is leading the country must deal with a fundamental shift in the UK’s most important relations – with the US and Europe – in an increasingly dangerous world.

After securing a strong victory in the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham has returned as a Labour MP and looks set to mount a leadership challenge against UK prime minister Keir Starmer. While there is still a possibility Starmer holds on, it seems likely that the UK will have a new leader before long.

Much of the debate around how Burnham, or other potential challengers, may differ from Starmer has focused on their approach to pressing domestic issues, especially the cost of living and growth, public services and immigration. Future relations with the EU have made the occasional appearance.

These issues are crucial. But Starmer’s time as prime minister has been largely consumed by foreign affairs. Any potential new prime minister will face a relentless deluge of international issues and challenges.

This is not just the result of unexpected overseas crises, although there have been many of those. It is tied to the fact that the UK’s most critical post-war relationships – with the US and Europe – are shifting.

There are positive lessons to take from Starmer’s track record so far. But his government has struggled to address the deeper strategic questions – and find the resources – needed to tackle this fundamental shift and its impact on defence and security.

A new prime minister would have the opportunity for a reset. This would need to address the US’s increasing reluctance to underwrite European security, the intensification of US-China rivalry, and the resulting increase in threats facing the UK.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.