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The Munich Security Conference showed that Europe can chart a path for a new transatlantic relationship through taking responsibility for its own defence, building democratic resilience and supporting Ukraine.

On the final day of the 2026 Munich Security Conference (MSC), a light snow dusted the rooftops around Bayerischer Hof – the legendary hotel that hosts the international security conference – bringing a sense of calm and closure to a hectic week. While this annual event has grown in scale and scope since its inception in 1963, it is best known as the place to take a barometer check on the state of transatlantic relations. This year’s gauge might read as ‘neutral, with pressure slowly falling’. In other words, while the transatlantic relationship is facing little immediate change, minor shifts in the environment are likely. Given the wrong mix of conditions, a sudden fall in pressure could bring about inclement weather.

Anticipating a Change

The mood at the start of this year’s MSC was a mix of anticipation and anxiety. Even as important conversations took place on topics from Ukraine and Iran to the impact of AI, the gathered high-level officials from government, academia and the private sector eagerly awaited the speech of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Would he reinforce messages delivered by Vice President J D Vance at last year’s MSC, accusing Europeans of suppressing free speech, silencing populist voices and failing to control migration? Or would he adopt a more realist approach, such as that presented by Pentagon Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby at the February 2026 NATO Defence Ministerial, where he called for a ‘NATO 3.0’ in which Europeans lead on conventional defence, while the US continues to provide some conventional support as well as extended nuclear deterrence?

In the end, Rubio delivered both. On the one hand, he mirrored Colby in calling for the US and Europe to work together to reform and rebuild international institutions to protect national and shared interests. At the same time, he questioned many of the cornerstones upon which the transatlantic relationship is built: the rules-based global order, liberal democracy and free trade. He dismissed action on climate change as driven by a ‘cult’ and depicted migration as an existential threat to Western civilisation. While Europeans will be ready to support much of the agenda laid out by Rubio – including reindustrialisation, supply chain sovereignty and innovation – the Trump administration’s approach to other issues, such as climate, migration and trade, is at odds with European values and interests.

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