WIREDGOV

Conditions have changed greatly since the height of Pakistan's influence as an interventionist actor in Afghanistan.

Following Pakistan's strike on Kabul on 9 October 2025 and Afghanistan’s launch of coordinated retaliatory attacks on Pakistani border security posts across the Durand line, there followed a direct war on 11-12 October between the two countries.

At the time of writing, Afghanistan and Pakistan have halted bilateral trade and transit operations for more than two months. Even with the mediation of Qatar and Turkey, as well as a recent mediation hosted by Saudi Arabia, the two countries are not on a path to rapprochement, evidenced by a surge in attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inside Pakistan. According to The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), TTP have carried out over 630 attacks in Pakistan from January 2021 to September 2025.

Islamabad demands security guarantees from Kabul to prevent TTP attacks inside Pakistan, while the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) claims this is a matter of Pakistan’s internal affairs. Qatar and Turkey's mediation has secured a fragile ceasefire, but a discussion is circulating on media platforms that Pakistan is considering pursuing a regime change policy in Afghanistan. Pakistan and political opponents of the Taliban have made regular secret contacts, notably between Pakistan and the National Resistance Front (NRF) led by Ahmad Massoud, son of the previous Jihadi commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, a veteran of conflict with the Taliban’s first regime.

The TTP's military campaign, carried out amid strained Pakistani-Afghan relations, continues to strike against Pakistani security forces. The main question arising is whether Pakistan, on its own, has the leverage to change the current Afghan Taliban regime? Answering this question can be examined within the context of a historical review of political dynamics in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as the evolving regional geopolitical realities on the ground.

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