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Challenges and Opportunities of the Transition to War

The UK and NATO must be ready for war. ‘Jam tomorrow’ is not enough.

It remains an unfortunate reality that democratic nations are seldom prepared to fight a war with well positioned and fully equipped armed forces. Financial constraints, and competition for resources with other vital sectors such as healthcare, education and social welfare, often add a level of challenge for new acquisitions, long-term investment in defence and the relationship with industry. The military are then inevitably driven to resort to sticking plasters and ‘quick fixes’ to deep rooted problems.

Furthermore, conventional wisdom often regards unused, large stockpiles of equipment as wasteful in terms of Treasury accounting. Despite the recent increase in defence spending, the challenges currently being wrestled within the MOD are unlikely to become less onerous in the short and medium term. With the limited funds immediately available, exacerbated by the purportedly hollowed-out military, both the MOD and industry have resorted to offering ‘jam tomorrow’ in the context in of the prioritisation of funds and letting-contracts, or the increase of production runs. This is promised with the expectation of a suitable warning of escalation, a timely easing of contracting rules and routes, and the appropriate release of money for conflict. That said, industry and the authority may not be in unchartered territory if we recall history. If the closest comparison is 1938 during the period of the Munich Agreement, then geopolitical challenges could intensify quite quickly.

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Original article link: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/challenges-and-opportunities-transition-war

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