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The role of analysis in the government’s work to eradicate child poverty.

Eradicating child poverty: how do we know what’s working and where to improve?

Eradicating child poverty is one of the Scottish Government’s four priority policy commitments. The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set targets to significantly reduce the proportion of children living in poverty by 2030. The policies currently being used to reach these targets are outlined in the delivery plan for 2022-26, ‘Best Start, Bright Futures’. It’s essential that policy decisions and outcomes are underpinned by high quality evidence and analysis. This summary highlights some of the key research undertaken by Scottish Government analysts to produce the evidence to inform these policies. It focuses on three main themes that are crucial for eradicating child poverty:

• Evidence rooted in experience
• the Scottish Child Payment
• the two-child limit payment

Evidence rooted in experience

Analysts use a variety of approaches to inform the development and implementation of different policies, ensuring that the evidence reflects the diverse experiences of the people who are affected. The Priority Families concept was developed by analysts to identify the characteristics of families most likely to be in poverty. There are six priority family types, which make up 90% of children living in households experiencing poverty. The six family types are: lone parent families; ethnic minority families; families with a disabled adult or child; families with a mother aged under 25; families with a child under one; and larger families with three or more children. The Priority Families concept now underpins a lot of the decision making behind the policies for eradicating child poverty. It helps policymakers understand which measures work best in relation to the three main drivers of child poverty: income from employment, income from social security, and the cost of living. It also helps to ensure that policy implementation is attuned to the varying needs of those most at risk of poverty and that the evidence behind these policies is rooted in people’s experiences. In addition, analysts assess the package of policies to understand how they work together to target child poverty.

Focus reports on each of the priority family types and other inequalities highlight the unique barriers faced when it comes to the main drivers of poverty. For example, families with a child under the age of one tend to see a decrease in their income coupled with an increase in costs of living. Improvements to accessible childcare, employment opportunities and increased wellbeing are recommended for this family type. This research also shows that different family types often overlap, and policies therefore need to be holistic to be able to target the families most in need. Evaluation reports for important policies such as School Age Childcare and the Five Family Payments continue to show which policies are working best and where they might be improved. This research is diverse and wide-ranging, including a combination of quantitative survey data and qualitative interviews with recipients of these policies and relevant stakeholders.

The Scottish Child Payment

Here we highlight an example of where evidence has been used to shape a specific policy. Analysis work consistently shows that the Scottish Child Payment (SCP) is one of the most important policies helping to reduce child poverty rates in Scotland. SCP is a weekly payment which acts as a ‘top up’ to Universal Credit and is a vital regular income source to many low-income families. Analysis and evaluation reports on SCP underscore where the policy has been working well and highlighted areas where it could be improved.

Analysts have also been able to estimate the potential impact of SCP and other policies by a process called modelling, in which they compare the modelled child poverty impact of a package of child poverty policies with an alternative modelled scenario where the policies did not exist. For example, analysis in 2025 estimated that SCP alone would keep around 40,000 children out of relative poverty in 2025-26, reducing the relative poverty rate by 4 percentage points. This kind of analysis has contributed to decisions to continue and expand the policy over time since it was implemented in 2021. The amount paid has more than doubled since then and eligibility for the payment has also expanded to include older children under 16.

Although SCP has been widely welcomed as a positive initiative, concerns have been raised that due to a ‘cliff edge’ effect, it might put some people off earning more money through work. This is because if they lose eligibility for Universal Credit and SCP, their entire SCP award is lost rather than being gradually tapered. However, research published by Scottish Government analysts concluded that SCP at its current payment level has not had a negative impact at scale on Scotland’s labour market. The findings also indicated that other societal benefits are encouraged by SCP, as the extra income allows families to focus on the development and wellbeing of their children.

The two-child limit payment

Another example of analysis informing decisions behind specific policies is the UK Government’s two-child limit. This limits the Universal Credit child element to a maximum of two children per family (with some exceptions), making it difficult for larger low-income families to cope with the cost of living. Research has influenced the Scottish Government’s decision to effectively remove the two-child limit for people receiving Universal Credit by March 2026.

As with SCP, analysts used modelling to estimate the potential impact of removing the two-child limit. Findings published in 2025 revealed that this limit was holding back the reduction of child poverty rates in Scotland. Results showed that while smaller families with one or two children saw a decrease in poverty rates, families with three or more children saw significant increases in their relative poverty rates. Because there was a rise in the proportion of larger families, the overall relative poverty rates only reduced by a small amount. This allowed analysts to infer that the two-child limit was hindering the effect of policies that were evidently helping smaller families, whose reduction in poverty was more significant than the overall trends would indicate.

Analytical evidence provides vital insights

Taken together, the variety of evidence produced by SG analysts provides the Scottish Government with vital information to help plan and implement key policies rooted in people’s experience. Going forward, development of the third Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan is also evidence-informed and this will be supported by an updated evaluation strategy, ensuring that evidence and analysis remain at the centre of policy decision making.

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