WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

China will not displace the US as regional security guarantor, but it could play an important role building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their security strategies.

The war in Iran has made China’s future posture in the Gulf more uncertain. Some analysts have rushed to conclude that the war has revealed China’s absence and proved that the US is the only reliable security partner for the Gulf states. Others claim that the war has pushed Gulf states closer to China as US predominance has declined.  

This binary outlook overlooks a key factor in Beijing’s Middle East policies: they are not built on a balancer or security provider model. In fact, China lacks a clear direction for navigating geopolitical shifts in the region. But it could reap political, normative, and reputational wins where dissatisfaction with Washington, and reorganized priorities across the Gulf, allow it to intervene at the expense of the US. 

The war’s main effect has not, therefore, been to set China on a path to replace the US as the region’s security provider. But it may have created the conditions for Beijing to play a role in shaping a new regional order.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.