WIREDGOV

The weather pattern across the North Atlantic is undergoing a remarkable transformation this week, with an intense area of low pressure near Iceland followed rapidly by strong high pressure across the UK.

This atmospheric “pressure ping-pong” will bring strong winds to north-western Scotland before conditions become quieter and cooler towards the weekend. While high pressure is expected to settle the weather for many, its precise position will determine whether some areas see sunshine or remain cloudy and showery.

An unusually deep Atlantic low

A powerful low-pressure system is rapidly developing as it moves northwards across the Atlantic and interacts with the jet stream. Its central pressure is forecast to fall to around 937 hPa as it approaches Iceland, making it an exceptionally intense system for October.

For comparison, the lowest October pressure recorded in Iceland is 938 hPa. However, the centre of the developing system is expected to remain a little to the south of Iceland when it is at its deepest. Whether a record is observed will therefore depend upon its exact track.

The system is undergoing explosive cyclogenesis, a term used when the central pressure of a low falls by at least 24 hPa in 24 hours. In this case, the pressure is forecast to drop by around 30 hPa as the low crosses the jet stream and rapidly intensifies.

The strongest winds will be found to the south and southwest of the low’s centre, where the isobars are packed most tightly. Across Iceland itself, heavy snow could prove more disruptive than the wind. Moist air wrapping around the system is expected to meet colder air across northern Iceland, producing the potential for heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions.

READ MORE: October weather extremes: from late warmth to early winter

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