WIREDGOV

Russia’s pugilistic actions in the sub-threshold-of-war grey zone leave Allies uneasy, and require contemplation before a proper response.

At the beginning of 2025, I wrote about the Kremlin’s growing grey zone aggression across Europe and the growing likelihood that the Kremlin’s leaders would ‘test’ NATO’s commitment to collective defence.

Since that article was published, the Kremlin appears to have grown more brazen as concerns continue to be raised about the Trump administration’s commitment to their allies; although Trump’s August meeting with Zelensky was a great improvement from February’s, his statements and track record imply an interest in an announcement of peace that could leave Ukraine vulnerable rather than committing to a long-term peace process combined with pressure on the Kremlin.

Moreover, even if fighting were to cease in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s grey zone aggression would not end with it. Indeed, it is likely to increase to destabilise the West and give the Kremlin an asymmetric advantage. These rapid developments make the discussion of deterring grey zone aggression critical; the Kremlin’s success in the grey zone is emboldening it to escalate its actions, contributing to a sense of impunity that increases the likelihood of kinetic action against more vulnerable NATO states in the Baltics.

This article examines the failures of past deterrence efforts and explores actionable strategies to prepare for and respond to Kremlin operations; particularly its information and influence activities, which play a critical enabling role. By learning from both history and modern successes, enhancing our understanding of our adversary and expanding cooperation, NATO members can develop a resilient framework that combines societal preparedness, strategic communication, and ethical yet robust countermeasures. The goal: to deny Moscow the freedom to act in the grey zone without consequence and undermine its confidence in targeting smaller NATO members.

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