UK Health Security Agency
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Flu levels ‘stubbornly stable’ in older age groups despite overall decline

Weekly UKHSA report for the 2025/26 season, monitoring respiratory viruses.

This weekly bulletin brings together the latest surveillance data, along with the latest public health advice for flu, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other viruses.

Latest

Levels of respiratory viruses such as flu and RSV are continuing to fall at the start of the New Year, but levels among older adults remained raised and of concern, according to the latest surveillance data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Following an early start to the flu season this winter, levels have been declining since mid-December among most age groups. UKHSA has also today extended the cold-health alert, with all regions in England remaining under an amber alert until 12pm on Monday 12 January, which is another concern for older adults who can be more vulnerable to cold weather.

While the data is encouraging, it’s important to note that levels of respiratory viruses among those aged 85 years and over, who are the most vulnerable to severe illness and hospitalisation, have not declined. It’s vital that people still take precautions to reduce the spread of these viruses, particularly to those more vulnerable.

The latest data shows that hospital admissions for flu and RSV were highest among those aged 85 years and over in the first week of the year.

Dr Conall Watson, Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA:

Further falls in flu levels overall are encouraging but cases of flu and RSV among older age groups are staying stubbornly stable for now, with no signs of a drop in the number of older adults needing emergency care for respiratory illnesses. We know flu is unpredictable, and the end of flu season could be some months away.

People aged 65 and over, and others most at risk, can still get a flu vaccine, which reduces the risk of severe illness and hospitalisation. Flu vaccination appointments are still available on the NHS national booking system and anyone who hasn’t yet had their vaccine should take it up for the remaining winter to protect themselves – flu often circulates well into March. RSV vaccination remains open year-round for pregnant women and any older adults aged 75 to 80 who haven’t yet had a dose.

People are returning to work and school after Christmas and this gives respiratory viruses like flu more chances to spread. If you have symptoms, including a high temperature, cough and feeling tired or achy, you should try to minimise contact with others, especially those more vulnerable.

If you have symptoms, stay home where possible and if you need to go out, consider wearing a face covering particularly if visiting vulnerable people.

Eligible groups can still get their flu vaccine through the NHS and while cases did spike in December, we know that flu is unpredictable and it is always possible that there could still be further increases over the next couple of months. Those who are eligible for the flu vaccine includes:

  • everyone over 65
  • those who are pregnant
  • children from the age of 2 years (as of 31 Aug) to school year 11
  • those with certain long-term health conditions

The RSV vaccine is available to those aged 75 to 79, those who turned 80 years old after 1 September 2024 and is also offered to pregnant women at or beyond the 28-week mark, as the vaccine helps protect the newborn baby.

Vaccination helps provide the best protection against severe illness and hospitalisation for those at higher risk. Early flu vaccine effectiveness data from UKHSA shows that the flu vaccine is working well against the flu strain most dominant so far this year, so it’s important that those eligible still take up the offer and get vaccinated to ensure they are protected for the remaining winter.

In the week between 29 December 2025 and 4 January 2026:

  • influenza activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at medium levels
  • COVID-19 activity showed mixed trends and is at baseline levels
  • respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at medium levels 

The flu, COVID-19 and RSV surveillance report and the national norovirus and rotavirus surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season are published weekly.

Flu surveillance data for week 1 (29 December 2025 to 4 January 2026): 

  • Flu activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at medium levels
  • Flu positivity decreased slightly with a weekly mean positivity rate of 13.9% compared with 15.4% in the previous week
  • Overall, flu hospitalisations were stable at 7.19 per 100,000 compared with 6.85 per 100,000 in the previous week

For the 2025 to 26 season’s vaccination programme, children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September, with other groups eligible from 1 October.

Up to the end of week 1 of 2026 (4 January), vaccine uptake stands at:

  • 74% in all those aged over 65 years
  • 40% in those aged under 65 years with one or more long-term health conditions
  • 37.9% in all pregnant women
  • 43% in children aged 2 years and 44.1% in children aged 3 years

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) surveillance data for week 1 (29 December 2025 to 4 January 2026): 

  • RSV activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at medium levels
  • RSV positivity decreased slightly to 8.6% compared with 10.1% in the previous week
  • The overall weekly hospital admission rate for RSV was stable at 3.30 per 100,000 compared with 3.26 per 100,000 in the previous week
  • emergency department attendances for acute bronchiolitis remained stable

COVID-19 surveillance data for week 1 (29 December 2025 to 4 January 2026): 

  • COVID-19 activity showed mixed trends and is at baseline levels
  • COVID-19 positivity remained stable with a weekly mean positivity rate of 1.6% compared with 1.6% in the previous week
  • COVID-19 hospitalisations were increasing at 0.87 per 100,000 compared with 0.77 per 100,000 in the previous week
  • COVID-19 ICU admissions remained low at 0.03 per 100,000 compared with 0.04 per 100,000 in the previous week 

Norovirus surveillance data between week 52 of 2025 to week 1 of 2026:

  • norovirus activity has varied in recent weeks but remains within expected levels
  • overall, norovirus laboratory reports between weeks 52 of 2025 and week 1 of 2026 (22 December 2025 to 4 January 2026) were 12.5% lower than the 5-season average for the same 2-week period and 13.7% lower than during the previous 2-week period
  • the rate is now highest in individuals aged 65 years and over
  • rotavirus activity between weeks 52 and week 1 of 2026 were 33.6% lower than the 5-season average for the same 2-week period
  • the number of norovirus outbreaks reported to the Hospital Norovirus Outbreak Reporting System (HNORS) since the start of the 2025/2026 season is 52.6% lower than the 5-season average
  • during the 2025/2026 season to date, the majority (83.6%) of samples characterised were norovirus genogroup 2 (GII), although GII.17 and GII.4 have continued to co-circulate, the most frequent genotype identified was GII.4 (31.8%)
  • norovirus symptoms include nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea but can also include a high temperature, abdominal pain and aching limbs. Norovirus infections can cause dehydration, especially in vulnerable groups such as young children and older or immunocompromised people, so if you do get ill it is important to drink plenty of fluids during that time

Amy Douglas, Lead Epidemiologist at UKHSA, said:

Norovirus cases remain within expected levels in recent weeks, but it’s important we all remember the simple steps we can take to help prevent the spread of this very nasty virus.

Washing your hands with soap and warm water and using bleach-based products to clean surfaces will also help stop infections from spreading. Alcohol gels do not kill norovirus so do not rely on these alone.

If you have diarrhoea and vomiting, do not return to work, school or nursery until 48 hours after your symptoms have stopped and do not prepare food for others in that time either. If you are unwell, avoid visiting people in hospitals and care homes to prevent passing on the infection to those most vulnerable.

Channel website: https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency

Original article link: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-weekly-winter-surveillance-bulletin

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