WIREDGOV

Falling North Sea revenue contributes to a deterioration in Scotland’s net fiscal balance, whilst expenditure also grows faster than onshore revenue. 

Scotland’s net fiscal balance has worsened since last year, with North Sea revenue falling for a second year in a row. Excluding the North Sea the net fiscal balance also worsened, with growth in onshore revenue, primarily due to income tax, slower than growth in spending, which was driven by spending on social protection and health.

Net Fiscal Balance 2024-25

This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance:

• Was a deficit of 11.7% of GDP (£26.5 billion).
• When excluding the North Sea, was a deficit of 14.4% of GDP (£30.6 billion)
• For the UK, was a deficit of 5.1% of GDP.

Total Public Sector Revenue 2024-25

• Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £91.4 billion (8.0% of UK revenue). Of this, £4.1 billion was North Sea revenue. Scottish non-North Sea revenue was £87.3 billion (7.7% of UK revenue).
• Non-North Sea revenue increased by £2.2 billion in 2024-25, an increase of 2.5% as growth in income tax was offset by falling National Insurance Contributions.
• Scotland’s illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue was 4.1 billion in 2024-25, down from £4.9 billion in 2023-24, following falls in energy prices and production.

Total Public Sector Expenditure 2024-25

• Total expenditure for Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £117.6 billion. Spending increased by £6.1 billion (5.5%), reflecting increases in spending on social protection and health.

The figures released today were produced in accordance with professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Background

The full statistical publication is available at https://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781836919315

The aim of GERS is to enhance public understanding of fiscal issues in Scotland. The primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics. The report is designed to allow users to understand and analyse Scotland’s fiscal position under different scenarios within the current constitutional framework.

GERS is an Accredited Official Statistics publication, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority, to ensure that it meets that standards set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.

More information on the standards of official statistics in Scotland can be accessed at:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/about-our-statistics/