WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

The strikes demonstrated a more assertive approach from Tehran, but the region’s security now depends on Israel’s ability to play a longer game.

Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.

Iranian-Israeli tensions have long simmered in the shadows of the broader Middle East. Iran has, since the 1979 revolution, taken an anti-Israeli posture and as part of its deterrence strategy has cultivated and financed support for the ‘axis of resistance’ network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine, surrounding Israel’s borders. 

Today these groups, which include Bashar al Assad, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi political and militia groups, are no longer proxies but rather partners who have domestic autonomy and coordinate transnationally.

The 7 October attacks forced Israel to pursue a new approach against Iran and the broader axis   because they exposed that Israel’s previous strategy had failed to ensure its security.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.