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Iraq Elections Return Incumbents, Testing US and Iranian Influence
Iraq's elections make ponderous a status quo Washington and Tehran seek to preserve; manoeuvring politicians make work for external powers contesting the fate of Iraq's Iran-backed militia groups.
Iraq’s November national elections positioned incumbent Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) as the leading party in federal Iraq, and provided more seats for coalitions and parties within the Shia Coordination Framework, the alliance that backs Sudani’s government.
The pre-election period was marked by extensive vote-buying and the use of sectarian fearmongering, both of which shaped campaign tactics across several constituencies, amid historically-low levels of political violence.
The Shia political actors in the Framework have vast influence in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the country’s state-sanctioned Iran-backed paramilitary umbrella. Those winning political entities include ex-PM and Dawa Party leader Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law (SoL), Qais al-Khazali’s Sadiqon-AAH paramilitary, Hadi Al-Ameri’s Badr Organisation paramilitary and Ammar Al-Hakim’s State Forces Alliance, among others. While Sudani is member of the RDC, there are roughly even chances that he will part paths with it, depending on his negotiations with other Framework member parties.
Voter participation defied prevailing expectations, with a reported turnout of 56% in 2025 marking an advance on 2021’s election turnout of 43%.
The heightened participation rate was achieved despite the continued boycott of the widely popular National Shia Current led by Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr withdrew from the electoral process, yet as his voting base compliantly updated their biometric voting cards in the months prior to polling day, this update contributed to the elevated voter turnout.
In the Kurdistan Region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) performed strongly against rivals, while the Taqaddum gained the highest votes in Baghdad and Sunni parts of Iraq.
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Original article link: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/iraq-elections-return-incumbents-testing-us-and-iranian-influence
