WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

The region’s balance of power is being violently upended. It will be difficult for Iraq to avoid being drawn into the upheaval.

For the first time in recent memory, Iraq has found itself on the margins of a major Middle Eastern conflict rather than at its epicentre. Open conflict between Iran and Israel arrived during a rare window of relative stability and developmental progress. Yet, this moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order.

The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq reshaped the geopolitical landscape and ushered in a new era – one in which Iran rose as a dominant regional power. The foundations of that order are now being disturbed in the wake of the 7 October Hamas attacks, Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, and the regional conflict that has followed. The full trajectory of this transition remains unclear. But it is almost certain to be tumultuous and violent.

This shift is occurring at a time when Iraq has begun to emerge from years of conflict, underscoring the vulnerability felt across the Iraqi political spectrum. Iraq’s political elite, regardless of ideological or ethno-sectarian alignment, remain wary of being drawn into regional conflict. 

Even factions with historically close ties to Iran, such as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have largely exercised restraint since 7 October. 

As leaders within the governing Shia Coordination Framework in Baghdad, they are not only beneficiaries of the state, but its stewards.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.