WIREDGOV

International pressure on flag registries has pushed part of Russia’s shadow fleet directly under Russian registration, potentially exposing news limits of sanctions enforcement.

Russia continues to depend on its shadow fleet to move its oil, which transports nearly 70% of Russian seaborne crude and generates an estimated $85 billion annually for the Kremlin. The fleet has become a lifeline to sustain wartime revenue and the raft of maritime sanctions adopted to degrade its operations now sit at the centre of the wider economic pressure campaign.

Russia’s strengths were waning in late 2025 and its economy was feeling the pain. In December, the price of Urals hit its lowest levels since 2022. However, recent geopolitical and related energy market developments have given Russia some relief. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy security and concerns over higher oil prices back to the top of Western policymaker priorities. At the same time, divergence between the US and the EU and UK has further widened, including through the issuing of US waivers that eased access to Russian oil already loaded on tankers.

Still, despite Russia’s renewed revenues in this turbulent context, a concerning trend in Russia’s shadow fleet operations involves not its profits, but the Russian flag itself. Since late 2025, part of the dark fleet has obtained direct registration under the Russian flag, essentially stepping out of the shadowy ecosystem that Russia had painstakingly built. This shift accelerated after an intense period of boardings and detentions by the US and EU. Russia’s unprecedented willingness to register these vessels reflects the impact of these actions, but it also raised concerns regarding the limitations it would entail for further sanctions enforcement and disruption of its operations. This trend has steadily slowed after January, perhaps suggesting that Russia has little appetite for absorbing the whole fleet and the liabilities that come with it. Regardless, the worrying trend and its potential impact on sanctions policymaking requires further analysis.

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