WIREDGOV

Macron’s concept of ‘forward deterrence’ offers a distinctly European approach to nuclear deterrence.

Standing in front of the imposing figure of Le Téméraire – one of France’s four nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines – French President Emmanuel Macron, on 2 March, laid out his vision for the role of French nuclear weapons in the future of European security. Macron introduced the concept of dissuasion avancée (forward deterrence), which will – inter alia – build on and formalise ongoing French engagement with allies on nuclear issues, open up new options for nuclear coordination and signalling in Europe, and strengthen the French nuclear deterrent through an increase in warhead numbers.

The speech was eagerly anticipated by allies. Growing concerns over the potential for further Russian aggression in Europe, paired with anxieties over the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella, have led to increasingly louder demand signals across Europe for France and the UK to strengthen the role their nuclear weapons play in European security.

The French and UK nuclear deterrents cannot replace the US nuclear umbrella. However, Macron’s speech has clearly demonstrated even a limited nuclear arsenal can adapt to meet the changing deterrence challenges Europe is facing. It has highlighted a uniquely European approach to nuclear deterrence and security on the continent is possible, all-the-while preserving an important role for US engagement.

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