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EXPERT COMMENT

Vladimir Putin believes enough pro-Russian sentiment exists for his attack on Ukraine to succeed, but the long-term cost of this war could fracture his regime.

Most analysts downplayed the likelihood of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine based partly on the conviction that such an invasion would make no political sense – that the risks for Vladimir Putin’s regime were surely too high due to the domestic and international backlash.

A bloody invasion could not serve Russia’s long-term aim of holding Ukraine within the ‘Russian world’ as this vision requires at least the pretence of ‘brotherly’ relations. But the tragedy of the invasion has forced a reassessment of the logic underlying Putin’s decision-making.

It raises questions about the significance of public opinion in his calculations such as whether Putin cares at all about how audiences across Russia and Ukraine judge his actions. If he does not care, is he correct to believe a public opinion backlash is no major obstacle to his plans? If he does care, but believes public opinion can be ‘managed’ is he right to be so confident or has he badly miscalculated?

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.