WIREDGOV

Despite Assad’s fall, Russia retains influence through debt leverage, military basing and security mediation.

In a historic visit to Washington, transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa became the first Syrian leader to visit the White House. The trip is meant to symbolise a turning point in Syria’s relations with the United States, as Damascus prepares to join the US-led coalition against ISIS. Yet rather than signalling a major geopolitical realignment, it reflects Sharaa’s broader strategy of maintaining ‘zero external enemies’, underscored by his visit to the Kremlin one month earlier. This approach has secured him growing international legitimacy but also rests on a fragile balance of power that will be increasingly difficult to sustain amid diverging foreign interests.

Sharaa’s overture to Moscow marked the culmination of months of growing diplomatic engagement, during which Russia resumed shipments of wheat and oil to Syria and agreed to print new Syrian banknotes through Goznak, the same provider used under Assad. The rapprochement has been facilitated by Sharaa’s brother Maher, a gynaecologist who lived and worked in Russia for over two decades and now serves as Syria’s de facto second-in-command.

Although the visit has been framed as a reset in relations, Sharaa pledged to honour all past agreements and signalled intent to deepen bilateral ties. These include Russia’s military bases at Hmeimim and Tartus, as well as the continuation of energy and reconstruction contracts awarded under Assad’s regime, many underpinned by Syria’s coercive debt obligations to Moscow. The emerging alignment points to a restoration of the structural dependencies that defined the Assad era, and with them, the return of Russian influence.

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