WIREDGOV

This Climate Change Plan (CCP) sets out the policies and proposals the Scottish Government will take forward to enable our carbon budgets to be met between 2026-2040.

Introduction

The Scottish Government’s commitment to ending our contribution to global emissions by 2045 at the latest, as agreed by Parliament on a cross-party basis, remains unwavering.

Scotland is over halfway to achieving our target of net zero emissions by 2045. The latest official statistics for Scotland showed that our greenhouse gas emissions had fallen by 51.3% between 1990 and 2023 – the largest reduction in the whole of the UK. Nearly every sector of the Scottish economy has seen substantial emissions reductions over that time.

This includes a 93.4% reduction in electricity supply emissions, from sources such as power stations; a 59.5% reduction in industrial emissions, including manufacturing and construction; and a 73.1% reduction in waste management emissions, such as landfill.

The key driver of the transition to date has been the transformation of the way we generate energy – from coal and gas to today’s thriving renewables sector. In 2023, 70% of electricity generated in Scotland was from renewable sources, and Scotland is a net exporter of electricity to the rest of the UK: in 2024, there were 19.7 TWh of net electricity exports to other UK nations.

Scotland is not alone in pursuing this energy transition – in 2024 China’s wind and solar generation rose by 25% compared to the previous year. Pursuing climate goals is increasingly seen as an economic necessity worldwide. It boosts resilience in the face of shocks and reduces the variation in energy prices due to oil market fluctuations.

In the energy sector and beyond, the net zero transition can also support significant economic opportunities for Scotland. Our already thriving green jobs sector can continue to grow in regions across Scotland, while collaborative working with the private sector can boost investment in the net zero economy.

This Climate Change Plan (CCP) sets out the policies and proposals the Scottish Government will take forward to enable our carbon budgets to be met between 2026-2040. These carbon budgets have been set in line with the levels proposed by our independent advisors, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), and provide a clear pathway towards Scotland achieving net zero by 2045.

Beyond the emissions reduction, this plan also sets out how these targets will be met fairly, in a way that continues to maximise the opportunities of the transition, while reducing impacts to a minimum wherever possible - this is what is known as the ‘Just Transition’.

This CCP builds upon our most recent Programme for Government, which presents Scotland’s climate ambitions over the next 20 years. It sets out that by 2045 we will have reduced emissions from our most polluting sectors without asking the impossible of people, and while building Scotland’s health and wealth. In this time, we will:

• Support transport services, people, and businesses to reduce their emissions;
• Promote and develop renewable energy, creating jobs and developing skills within the industry;
• Tackle fuel poverty and protect those on low incomes while decarbonising heat in buildings;
• Invest in nature-based solutions helping to reverse nature decline and restore and regenerate biodiversity in Scotland;
• Adapt to climate impacts, recognising that warming trends for the next two decades are already set due to past global emissions, carrying unavoidable impacts for nature and the environment; and
• Continue to play our role in delivering global climate justice by securing global change and fulfil the moral duty to protect and improve the lives of both current and future generations, both in Scotland and overseas.

Figure 1: Historical and projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Scottish carbon budget levels

Earlier this year, the Scottish Government introduced a new set of five-yearly carbon budget targets as part of our pathway to net zero in 2045. Carbon budgets provide a more reliable and consistent framework to measure progress to net zero and are used by other countries including Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland and Wales. This means reporting on progress is less prone to fluctuations than the Scottish Government’s previous approach of interim and annual targets, which could be affected by annual variations outwith our control such as extreme weather or a global pandemic.

The carbon budgets set a target for an average level of emissions reduction for Scotland over each five-year period, set at:

• 57% lower than baseline levels for 2026-2030,
• 69% lower than baseline levels for 2031-2035,
• 80% lower than baseline levels for 2036-2040, and
• 94% lower than baseline levels for 2041-2045

Each carbon budget level refers to an average reduction in emissions over a five-year period from the 1990 baseline and run in parallel with Scotland’s target of net zero emissions by 2045.

Our approach to delivering these emissions reductions is broken down by the sector of the economy within which the action will be taken forward. The sectors referenced by this plan are specified by legislation:

• residential and public (in relation to buildings in those sectors),
• transport (including international aviation and shipping),
• waste management,
• energy supply,
• business and industrial process,
• land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), and
• agriculture.

Delivering the climate mitigation policies and proposals across these sectors will require action from everyone across Scotland, but achieving them puts us firmly on track to delivering net zero by 2045 and reflects our continued ambition in addressing climate change. Households will also see real benefits from these actions – from warmer homes, improved air quality and access to active travel.

The policy actions set out can also protect people and communities from the health harms associated with fossil fuels and, coupled with effective adaptation, prevent many of the anticipated health impacts of climate change. Health benefits from cleaner air, warmer homes, healthier food, health-promoting natural and built environments, high quality public services and fair work in a thriving economy can be immediate. The CCP will support delivery of Scotland’s prevention-focused Population Health Framework, wider public service reform agenda and the ambitions of the Scottish Government to build a fairer, greener and healthier Scotland.

This document sets out the key actions each sector will be taking forward to deliver our carbon budgets to 2040. The sectoral annexes provide further detail on the range of policies and proposals each area will be taking forward, how these integrate with the Scottish Government’s wider vision for the sector, and actions we will take forward to secure a just transition in each sector.

There are significant uncertainties with planning actions to deliver carbon budgets over a fifteen-year time span – technological change, action from UK government in reserved areas, wider European and global developments and other factors will impact the policies and proposals set out in this document and result in other options becoming available. That is why the Scottish Government will continue to monitor and evaluate the plan itself alongside implementation of the actions set out in the CCP to advise of further actions needed in future years. The Monitoring and Analytical Annex sets out our approach to monitoring over the course of this plan.

Delivering Under Devolution

The Scottish and UK Governments’ ambitions to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss, are highly interdependent: many of the critical levers required to deliver net zero in Scotland are held at the UK level; meanwhile, delivering UK wide climate targets is also reliant on Scotland achieving our net zero aim.

Scotland’s vast natural resources, from our renewable energy potential to our extensive area of peatland and forestry, are critical to climate goals for the whole of the UK.

The CCC, in their advice to the UK Government on the level of the UK 7th Carbon Budget (2038 to 2042), highlighted that over “10% of the UK-wide emissions reduction required to meet the recommended 7th Carbon Budget will come in devolved or partially devolved policy areas within the devolved nations”.

Moreover, the CCC emphasises the necessity for shared delivery and collaboration between national governments as between 30-60% of the emissions reduction required in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland will be in areas of policy that are mostly reserved.

As such, action from the UK Government in key areas of reserved policy, or cooperation in areas where a joined-up approach is essential, will be crucial to achieving our climate ambitions, including (but not exclusively):

• the rebalancing of prices in the electricity market to make prices more affordable;
• a comprehensive four nations approach to vehicle and road taxation;
• appropriate, long term, specific financial support for land-based measures including tree-planting and peatland restoration, reflecting the share of these resources in Scotland;
• fair funding distribution for agriculture; and
• further certainty on critical investment decisions, including a full funding package and timeline for the Acorn Transport and Storage Project.

As such, this plan sets out our specific requests of the UK Government in each sectoral annex, highlighting the need for additional collaboration, action and ambition, in line with CCC recommendations.

The Contents of this Climate Change Plan

The carbon budget levels recently approved by the Scottish Parliament represent an ambitious delivery pathway towards achieving net zero by 2045. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act requires that a plan is produced which sets out the policies and proposals which will deliver emissions reductions consistent with meeting our carbon budgets.

The actions this Government will be taking to deliver the carbon budgets in each sector is set out in this document in a summary form, with further detail provided in Sectoral Annexes. These outline how we will approach emissions reduction over the course of this plan, in line with our just transition principles and the interests of the wider sector. These annexes also provide an update on progress from the previous Climate Change Plan update.

A separate Monitoring and Analytical Annex is also provided to further detail the contributions of policies and proposals to meeting our carbon budgets, along with further detail on costs and benefits.

The CCP as a whole is informed by the importance this Government places on achieving the economic opportunities of the transition, and actions we will take to ensure it is delivered in a just and fair way. The plan also recognises the important role for adaptation to the changing climate, and the critical importance of addressing nature and biodiversity loss in tandem with our approach to emissions reduction.

Further detail is set out on a range of issues in the annexes, including where the Climate Change Act specifies factors that must be taken into account when setting this plan, including:

• Just Transition principles: how the policies and proposals will affect sectors, regions and jobs (Annex 1A, with specific references in each sectoral annex)
• Consumption and Lifestyle: how our action will affect emissions associated with what we consume (Annex 1B)
• International: how our action supports developing countries to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, and how it contributes to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (Annex 1C)

Alongside the plan documentation, there are a number of impact assessments published to help consider the impacts of this plan and its proposals.

This is a draft plan and we are inviting responses to a consultation on it between 6 November and 29 January 2026. Further detail on how you can contribute is set out below.

Click here for the full press release