WIREDGOV

Classified Russian government document revelations add to concerns that the adversarial nation’s undersea threat is both acute and invested towards a further-reaching campaign.

In recent years, threats to both civilian and military underwater critical infrastructure – such as telecommunications, energy, oceanographic, underwater surveillance and navigation infrastructure – associated with Russia’s aggressive actions have become especially visible and are widely recognised as particularly acute, both in academic circles and by government organisations. This applies both to acts of sabotage that may be carried out during a grey-zone period without Russian attribution being revealed, and to operations that may form part of an ultimate Russian naval campaign in the event of full-scale armed confrontation with NATO or individual NATO countries.

In this context, it is extremely important to understand the development of Russian capabilities that could be used in such operations, because the direction of this development, among other things, indicates Russia’s real intentions and the specific scenarios for which it is preparing. This article attempts such an analysis, based both on publicly available information and on some classified Russian government documents provided for this purpose by several European intelligence agencies, the authenticity of which remains beyond any doubt.

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