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Snow or no snow.. what do we know?

There is a lot of media speculation in the air, but it almost certainly won’t be accompanied by disruptive snow. That is the view of Helen Caughey – a Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster.

She yesterday said:

“Already there is a lot of media speculation about the prospects for snow later this week and for a white Christmas. Whilst it is too early to give any indications for Christmas, some colder weather is likely for the end of the week, and into the weekend.

“So, what do we know. There is a reasonably strong signal for lower temperatures across the UK by the weekend. But that isn’t guaranteed, and those lower temperatures don’t mean widespread snow. There is a 70 per cent chance that areas as far south as southern England could experience overnight frosts and a general reduction in temperature. However, there is still a 30 per cent chance that the colder conditions won’t get that far south. Any falling snow is likely to be confined to the far northeast, and hills and mountains of Scotland.”

Potential change in weather regime from Friday 24 November 2023. Graphic shows three options: 70 per chance of cold but mostly dry; 20 per cent chance of cold in north, mild in south; and 10 per cent chance of milder for all.

Potential change in weather regime from Friday 24 November 2023

Aidan McGivern is a Met Office senior weather presenter. Commenting on the outlook for the festive period he yesterday said:

“Christmas is still over one month away, so it is impossible with this lead time to have any confidence in a detailed forecast for the big day. The only guides this far out that are helpful in determining a forecast are studying the global drivers of weather and what is happening with the shift in climatology – how the climate is shifting in response to climate change.

“If you’re seeing stories this far from Christmas promising a white Christmas, you can’t trust them to be right. Of course, there is always a chance, but no-one can have the certainty to be sure this far ahead.”

For further information is available on white Christmas and ten facts about snow.


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