WIREDGOV

China’s repression of its Muslim citizens acts as a lightening rod for criticism of the country and its influence campaign in Central Asia.

As China deepens its economic and political footprint across Central Asia, it has also found itself entangled in the region’s evolving religious and ideological currents. Among the most sensitive, and potentially volatile, of these is the role of Islamic extremists and conservative clerics in stoking up Sinophobia in the region.

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Chinese policymakers have long warned that jihadist groups, particularly those with roots in Central Asia and linked to the country’s Uyghur population, present a serious threat to domestic stability and regional security on its western horizon. But while terrorist organisations have increasingly targeted Beijing in their rhetoric, the actual scale and immediacy of the threat remains limited. Instead, it is Beijing’s securitised posture, its sweeping repression of Uyghur Muslims, its entanglements in weaker, neighbouring states and its framing of Islam as a political danger, that has made China a more prominent target of radical narratives.

Jihadist groups have clearly taken note of China’s rise. In Afghanistan, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the regional offshoot of ISIS created in 2015, has sought to undermine the new Taliban government, with their propaganda contrasting images of friendly meetings between the Taliban and China with photos of the repression of Muslims in China. In Voice of Khorasan, a propaganda outlet of ISKP, a 2022 article accused China of imperial ambitions and warned that the ‘tyrants’ in Beijing would soon be unable to shield themselves ‘from the sharp knives of the caliphate’s soldiers.’ This threat builds on earlier declarations by ISKP leadership that vowed to liberate ‘all Muslim lands from Andalus to East Turkistan.’ In 2017, Islamic State’s Iraq-based media arm even released a video showing Uyghur fighters threatening to spill ‘rivers of blood’ in China. These threats, while often rhetorical, have become more frequent and explicit as Beijing expands its global presence.

Since largely losing its territory in Syria in 2019 and then in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in 2021, Islamic State affiliates have shifted their focus towards foreign attacks. So far, there have been no attacks by Islamic State in China or targeting China’s presence in Central Asia. The most prominent incident, the 2016 suicide bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, was linked to Uyghur militants affiliated with Al-Nusra, but no group ever claimed responsibility and the investigation was riddled with inconsistencies. While there have been no attacks within China, Chinese citizens have been targeted. ISKP attacked a hotel in Kabul, targeting Taliban and Chinese officials who were meeting there, in December 2022. Another Chinese citizen was killed in an attack in Takhar province in February 2025.

Islamist and nationalist actors alike portray Beijing as a foreign hegemon, exploiting resources and trampling on religious values

Despite this limited threat, the Chinese government continues to frame transnational jihadist threats as both imminent and existential. Leaked speeches from Xi Jinping’s 2014 tour of Xinjiang, later reported in international media, revealed that Beijing fears instability in the region could derail its Belt and Road Initiative. In particular, the Chinese leader warned that Uyghur militants returning from Syria or Afghanistan could threaten domestic peace. But the very measures China has taken to prevent this, mass internment, forced assimilation campaigns and the global pursuit of Uyghur dissidents, have arguably amplified its exposure to risk. Rather than deter extremist groups, these repressive actions have become part of the radical narrative. Propaganda channels now frequently depict China as the ‘enemy of Islam,’ and its crackdown on Uyghurs is cited alongside grievances against Israel, the US and other perceived oppressors of Muslims.

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