WIREDGOV

As the Hormuz crisis strains supplies, Russia is likely to test Europe's resolve this winter, with cyberattacks on energy infrastructure the most credible threat.

Ukraine and its European partners face one of their toughest winters since Russia's invasion in 2022. Yet Kyiv is better prepared than at any point in the war. It has exceeded its initial gas storage target, decentralised heating, water and electricity systems to limit strikes' impact, and erected reinforced concrete shelters around critical infrastructure.

Nevertheless, while Kyiv is better prepared, the rules have changed and Moscow is likely to test European resolve as much as Ukraine’s resilience.

In a rare public appearance at the Yalta European Strategy forum in Kyiv on 13 September, Jonathan Powell, the UK's national security adviser, said talk of Russian escalation was a 'sign of success' that Western sanctions were paying off, isolating the country globally and eroding its capacity to finance the war over the long run.

He warned that Europe must be prepared for 'real hardship' this winter, as Moscow seeks to exploit tightening gas supplies and rising energy prices following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy waterways. Oil prices have increased 50% since the start of the blockade while gas prices surged 140% compared to a year earlier, raising the prospect of fuel shortages and further steep increases in household utility bills.

All this could amplify Russia's winter campaign, as Moscow seeks not only to freeze Ukrainian homes but test how much economic pain Europeans will tolerate before support for Kyiv frays. The threat to European energy infrastructure is therefore also likely to grow as winter approaches.

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