WIREDGOV

Recent history in Afghanistan and Iraq teaches that rebuilding in active conflict zones comes with its share of hazard and futility, but it is a necessity in Gaza and Ukraine despite its uncertainty.

With only a series of brief respites in long-term conflicts, Ukraine and Gaza present a familiar dilemma: how to rebuild in active conflict zones. Given Russia’s apparent commitment to a forever war, Ukraine has been forced to carry out a piecemeal reconstruction as the war grinds on. In Gaza, both Israelis and Palestinians may see reasons to resume hostilities. The countries which will fund efforts to rebuild in these conflict zones should keep in mind that reconstruction brings its own kind of minefield, and any missteps will be costly.

Despite a persistent belief about the winning nature of development, it would be a mistake to imagine that reconstruction could prevent the return of violence. Past misadventures in the Middle East are a stark example of the limits – and even the dangers – of heedlessly pouring money into a war-torn land in the name of stability. Of the roughly $5 trillion the US spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, $141 billion went to Afghanistan’s reconstruction, and at least $220 billion funded reconstruction in Iraq – with little lasting effect. Yet much of the institutional knowledge gained through these costly failures has since been lost due to federal restructuring and the defunding of NGOs with relevant expertise. The result is a diminished capacity to apply the lessons learned.

Still, money will flow into both, and it will not be a panacea. Gaza’s reconstruction needs are estimated at $53 billion over the next decade, compared with $524 billion for Ukraine. Despite being an order of magnitude more affordable and taking place in 0.06% of the land area, the reconstruction effort in Gaza has a worse long-term chance of success – but both are gravely at risk if key lessons from past reconstruction efforts are ignored.

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