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EXPERT COMMENT

President Trump should not concede much on issues like Taiwan. But both powers have an interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz and making progress on AI safety.

For Beijing, President Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. His decisions have handed China’s leadership advantages of which it cannot have dreamed before he arrived in the Oval Office for the second time.

Trump has cancelled the Biden-era subsidies for clean technology, allowing China to extend its lead. He has slapped tariffs on allies including Vietnam and India, driving them towards Beijing. He has called NATO into question and sided with Russia in its aims over Ukraine. And now he has tied up the US military and his own attention in a war with Iran which he cannot easily end.

That comes after a year in which China demonstrated its rising power. In October, President Trump was forced to back down on tariffs, after Beijing threatened to withhold critical minerals. In March, Xi’s government published its latest five-year plan, showing how it intends to reap the fruits of its strategy of becoming the world’s dominant advanced manufacturer. Meanwhile China continued to rapidly develop a lead across much of the waterfront of technology, with the exception of the most advanced AI.

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