WIREDGOV

The efforts by the US and Iran to interfere with the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf mirror each other in their intent to affect any final settlement.

The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its third week. The US Navy has compelled 38 vessels linked to Iran to divert and boarded Iranian vessels both in the region and further afield in the Indian Ocean. Iran, meanwhile, has resumed a strategy of selective closure, allowing non-Iranian shipping through the strait only case by case and, apparently, in exchange for tolls. Iran’s parliament is in the process of passing legislation which would formalise its ability to charge tolls for transit. On 4 May, the US also supported the transit of at least one US-flagged vessel belonging to Maersk, prompting strikes from Iran on regional infrastructure.

The strategic end states are becoming clearer. Iran wants to restore its own exports, monetise its control over Hormuz and use that leverage to protect the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, and by extension Hezbollah. The Trump administration, by contrast, appears determined to link any end with pressure to a wider settlement covering at least Iran's nuclear programme and perhaps its conventional missile arsenal. The question is, which side holds the advantage?

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