WIREDGOV

A blockade striking Iran’s Economy will provide direct leverage in negotiations, but that it provokes questions that are going unanswered should impel caution.

On 12 April, President Donald Trump declared that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This was in response to the collapse of diplomatic talks in Islamabad, themselves precipitated by a two-week ceasefire agreement in the ongoing hostilities between the US and Israel, and Iran. Later that day, US Central Command then clarified the Trump’s announcement in their formal declaration of a blockade of ‘all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports’ but stressed that Freedom of Navigation would not be impeded ‘for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.’

A Strategic Shift

Such a move represents a shift in strategy from the US with regard to its conflict with Iran. There is no doubt that the might of the US Armed Forces has been brought to bear with devastating effect against large parts of Iran’s military, political and industrial infrastructure. Militarily it has been a largely one-sided fight and although Iran has landed a number of blows, these are nothing compared to the pummelling that it has received from the US and Israel.

Nonetheless, the Iranians have long prepared for such an eventuality and have not sought to go toe-to-toe with the US on the seas or in the air. They have dispersed, hidden and dug-in much of their capability to make it both hard to find and hard to strike. It is not known how much remains, but no one thinks that the Iranian ability to make mischief in the region has been eliminated.

This has enabled Iran’s continued ability to strike a range of targets in the Gulf region with drones and ballistic missiles, the targets of which have included US bases as well as the economic interests of their neighbours. The aim, whilst seeking to denude what they can of the US capability, is to apply diplomatic and economic pressure both directly and indirectly to the US to bring an end to hostilities.

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