WIREDGOV

Our experts comment on the US attacks on Venezuela and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.

The 3 January actions by the US in Venezuela will have implications for Europe and transatlantic relations more broadly.

The action is a first manifestation of the US National Defence Strategy’s (NDS) prioritisation of the Western Hemisphere relative to other regions. It underscores the US’ lack of interest in European security (and Ukraine) and suggests the Western Hemisphere will be a continued draw on limited US military, financial and law enforcement resources. If the proposed consolidation of US Southern Command and US Northern Command into US Americas Command proceeds in 2026, forces and capabilities could be reassigned from those regional commands responsible for Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Insofar as the Venezuela operation relied not only on US military forces but also on Drug Enforcement Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation assets, European allies could also experience a decrease in the United States’ ability to cooperate with them on transnational crime across Europe.

What is more, any consequent instability in Venezuela could have a spill-over effect in the region that would affect European interests in the Latin America. France, for example, maintains a significant military presence in its territory, French Guiana, charged with preventing illegal gold mining and conducting maritime surveillance, as well as guarding against potential incursions by Venezuela into Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo region. French forces in the region, as well as Dutch forces in Netherlands’ island territories off the coast of Venezuela, could face pressure to cooperate in enforcing US plan for the region.

Yet by far the most consequential effect on European and transatlantic security would be any US attempt to occupy or take Greenland by force as part of the NDS goal to ‘reassert and enforce’ US pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere through what it calls the ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine. However unlikely, this prospect cannot be discounted or ignored. Such a move would undermine security in the Arctic and have devastating consequences for the NATO alliance.

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