WIREDGOV

Russia's Zapad 2025 in Belarus focused on high-leverage capabilities, contrasting with the high tempo and mass in previous iterations of the exercises.

Zapad 2025 is the 2025 iteration of Russia's joint strategic exercise with Belarus, represents a critical inflection point in the evolution of Russian military strategy and force development. Unlike its previous iterations, which showcased overt demonstrations of military mass and tempo, Zapad 2025 appears as a meticulously calibrated, scaled-down, and geographically-constrained exercise. This is a deliberate and rational adaptation to the immense human and material costs of the ongoing large-scale war in Ukraine and the persistent strain of international sanctions.

The exercise worked as a multi-layered instrument of a state in war time, even though not fully mobilised. Politically, it fostered a perception of ‘resolve continuity’ to both domestic and international audiences, strengthening the Russian-Belarusian closeness and deploying calibrated, low-resource deterrent messaging. Militarily, it worked as a field laboratory where Russia stress-tested and refined its ‘Initial Period of War’ (IPW) playbook, incorporating direct lessons from the Ukrainian battlefield. The focus this time was on high-leverage capabilities, such as long-range precision fires, integrated air and missile defence (IAMD), and electronic warfare (EW), while conserving mass and materiel that are critically needed in Ukraine. This focus directly reflects the frictions and vulnerabilities exposed in the conflict, including brittle command and control, logistical fragilities, and an industrial base strained by sanctions.

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