WIREDGOV

As autumn sets in, Ukraine's rasputitsa mud season will constrain Russian manoeuvre on the battlefield and strain the railways supplying Moscow's forces in occupied territory.

Geography and terrain have long shaped operational battle situations, particularly in Russia, but their significance shifts with the seasons and the climate. The initial stage of Russia's war in Ukraine in February–March 2022 was marked by stark images of Russian tank convoys mired in mud and ground to a halt just outside Kyiv. At the time, this prompted commentary about the capabilities of the Russian armed forces and the logistical resupply problems this bottleneck created. But almost five years on, it encapsulates how geography and weather are inescapable features of war theatres.

As the autumn and winter begin to set in on the battlefield in Ukraine, the coming of rasputitsa – the mud season – will once again shape battle conditions. While ultimate operational success or failure comes down to Russian military planning and structure, weather conditions will play a significant role in the coming months, and could contribute to Russia's readiness – or otherwise – to engage with any diplomatic negotiations.

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