WIREDGOV

EXPERT COMMENT

A tortuous process has produced a plan that does not set a clear path towards meeting the UK’s defence expenditure targets. But it includes many elements which will make the UK a more attractive collaborative partner for NATO allies.

The UK Government’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP) was finally published last week to predictably mixed reviews from the British media and commentariat. It is the outcome of a tortuous process begun with the launch of a ‘first-of-its-kind’, externally-led Strategic Defence Review (SDR) in mid-July 2024 – one that was dogged from the start by an unclear budgetary envelope. 

The DIP does not set a visible trajectory towards achieving the government’s commitment to spend 3 per cent of GDP on defence in the next Parliament or to meet the 2025 NATO Hague Summit’s agreement to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence by 2035. And even for the remaining years of this Parliament,  the plan appears to contain a £1.2 billion per year funding shortfall. That money will need to be found.

Protracted deliberations between the Ministry of Defence (MOD), the Treasury and No 10 over the size and shape of the future defence programme are nothing new. But this time they were uniquely public and theatrical – watched with concern not only by observers in the UK but among key allies and partners. 

The government should ensure that such a conceptually flawed process is also the last-of-its-kind.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.