Chatham House
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AI export controls are not the best bargaining chip
EXPERT COMMENT
US export controls on chips and hardware alone will not prevent China from further developing advanced AI.
The battle for access to advanced US computing chips is well underway. Last week, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced a range of export control bills, which came as the Chip Security Act makes its way through the layers of US legislative process. The act seeks to prevent US chips from being illegally shipped or diverted to foreign adversaries, especially China, by requiring companies to verify that semiconductors used in AI remain in authorized locations.
This policy aims to slow down the progress of Chinese AI and give the US more time to advance domestic AI capabilities. But for the US, its allies and partners, export controls alone will largely fail in this aim. This is not just because the enforcement of export controls has been leaky and undermined by smuggling. It’s because the policy itself is based on a hardware-centric approach to AI capabilities that the technology has since outgrown.
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Original article link: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/ai-export-controls-are-not-best-bargaining-chip
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