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EXPERT COMMENT

Ankara’s deepening relations with Gulf countries and a potential rerouting of trade are among the factors likely to benefit Turkey.

The Iran war is fundamentally redefining politics in the Middle East and upending the regional status quo. It is also redefining Turkey’s role within the region, which presents both challenges and opportunities for Ankara.

For Turkey, the worst-case scenario was and is that Israel would seek to engineer state collapse in Iran, the fallout of which would consume both Iran and its neighbours for many years to come. It would pave the way for proxy conflicts, a refugee crisis and state fragmentation – and bring the Kurdish dimension of the war to the fore. This outcome would also further embolden Israel – with US backing – to continue its efforts to reshape the region on its own terms. But so far, Iran’s endurance has prevented Turkey’s worst fears from materializing.  

At this stage, Turkey has two interrelated concerns. One, Turkey wants to prevent a return to war, but it is also worried about what it sees as Iran’s attempt to rewrite the rules of the game in the Gulf. For example, Iran’s new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz could effectively give Iran significant influence over Gulf states’ security as well as their economy. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has called for a return to the pre-war status quo in Hormuz, warning the new regulation could become a ‘new source’ of conflict. Plus, Turkey believes that Iran’s actions here will push Gulf states closer to the US and Israel.

However, the war also presents Ankara with opportunities in the shape of an expanded regional role: in defence industry and security partnerships; in regional connectivity and trade route redesign; and through regional alignments.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.